Economy

[Guest guest]

" Do we have any economy experts on this list who can give us some

predictions "

 

....enter the Newbie... ;-)

I'm a specialist in macroeconomic theory by education (5yr university level

education), that was actually what started me on the road towards astrology:

I figured out that the " modern " economic theories I learned did not have any

significant predictive power beyond 6 months into the future so I started to

read old cycle theories, that eventually brought me to " WD Gann " and to

astro.

 

However, I'm not going to claim any authority, I'm still researching and

back testing. For those interested I'll recommend three books on the topic

 

*Astrology & Stock Market Forecasting by Louise McWhirter 1938

( Tropical, an easy and very general overview on the economy, maybe too

easy)

 

*Forecasting Prices by TG Butaney 1940

(Tropical, a general view on stocks: simple planetary aspects without regard

to natals, basically the same as McWhirter but more detailed and with some

Vedic comments )

 

*Astro Cycles & Speculative Markets by L Jensen

(For the advanced student of economy and stocks, natals, solar return,

diurnals, tropical and sidereal. This book is packed with information )

 

 

McWhirter's system is the easiest, her basis is the 18.6 year cycle of the

north node travelling through the tropical Zodiac, the following quote is

relevant for where we are now:

 

" Taurus is the transition point or normal point as the [businesses]curve

goes from normal to below normal in business volume. When the North Node

enters Aquarius the low point of business activity has been reached. As the

node transits Capricorn & Sagittarius, the normal position of the Business

Curve is below Normal going to normal. "

 

She adjusts this very general cycle with planetary aspects. Looking at a

tropical ephemeris we see that the Node will transit Aquarius in approx

jan2008-aug2009. When adding major aspects to the picture my guess is that

the Saturn-Uranus opposition in November 2008 will mark the bottom.

(Amateur disclaimer applies) Personally I have not calculated further than

that but I know of others who talk about the period 2010-2020 being an

economic " lost decade " .

 

Let me emphasize that this is not linear in any way, on the road towards nov

2008 there will be several benign long-term aspects that should give

temporarily increases in employment and stock market rallies.

 

This can all be fine tuned by using natals and solar returns (I'm not good

enough to do that yet, that is why I asked for help on books :-)

 

I may add that Merriman has a free weekly comment that often mentions the

longer picture, he has also mentioned the 2008-9 time frame:

he deletes the old free columns so I cannot find the quote anymore but here

is the link anyway for those interested:

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

 

 

 

 

Best wishes,

Steinar

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therese Hamilton [eastwest]

Wednesday, December 15, 2004 6:52 PM

 

Re: America's fate

 

 

At 09:26 AM 12/15/04 -0800, Bert wrote:

 

>You are right, it is difficult to find the holiday spirit this year. And

for the next

>four I am afraid.

 

Perhaps much longer than four years. The dye has been cast for America. I

can't help but wonder about the collective karma that we're all

experiencing. I fear greatly for the economy, among other things. Do we

have any economy experts on this list who can give us some predictions?

 

Therese

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest guest]

At 11:04 PM 12/15/04 +0100, Steinar wrote:

>...enter the Newbie... ;-)

>I'm a specialist in macroeconomic theory by education (5yr university level

>education), that was actually what started me on the road towards astrology:

>I figured out that the " modern " economic theories I learned did not have any

>significant predictive power beyond 6 months into the future so I started to

>read old cycle theories, that eventually brought me to " WD Gann " and to

>astro...

 

Thanks for your post, Steinar! For the time being I'll leave market

forecasting to...hmmm...usually it's the guys who are interested in stocks

and speculation. Usually...not always! For some reason I don't like to deal

with money. I used to offer a Jyotish correspondence course, and one reason

I stopped the course after some years is that I didn't like taking money

from people.

 

Therese

[Guest guest]

You are in good company then, I believe Lilly did natals and horary for the

common man for free at the end of his career

 

Best,

S

Therese Hamilton [eastwest]

Thursday, December 16, 2004 3:53 AM

Re: Economy

 

 

At 11:04 PM 12/15/04 +0100, Steinar wrote:

>...enter the Newbie... ;-)

>I'm a specialist in macroeconomic theory by education (5yr university

level

>education), that was actually what started me on the road towards

astrology:

>I figured out that the " modern " economic theories I learned did not have

any

>significant predictive power beyond 6 months into the future so I started

to

>read old cycle theories, that eventually brought me to " WD Gann " and to

>astro...

 

Thanks for your post, Steinar! For the time being I'll leave market

forecasting to...hmmm...usually it's the guys who are interested in stocks

and speculation. Usually...not always! For some reason I don't like to

deal

with money. I used to offer a Jyotish correspondence course, and one

reason

I stopped the course after some years is that I didn't like taking money

from people.

 

Therese

 

 

 

 

" How can Pluto be in Sagittarius when it's so close to Antares? " -----

 

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[Guest guest]

Merriman's last long-term outlook from his free weekly newsletter:

----------

-

 

Long-Term Thoughts:

 

 

 

It just doesn't add up.

 

 

 

Looking out at the long-term horizon, there is a crisis looming

for the financing of the Social Security and Medicare programs in the United

States . I have addressed this potential crisis several times within the

context of the downside of Saturn-Pluto cycle, which moves from its

opposition to conjunction between 2002-2020. This is a period when,

historically, increases usually occur in Federal deficits, interest rates,

and taxes. Of course that does not have to happen, because leaders have

choices, and outcomes we can control depend more upon on choices than they

do upon astrological signatures. But historically, these signatures have

coincided with financial choices that leaders have made during this phase of

the Saturn-Pluto cycle, and these choices have led these types of economic

crises.

 

 

 

And it could happen again, for reasons discussed in the past

couple of columns. But what is difficult to understand are the replies to

this looming crisis given by the White House. Let's look at this matter from

a simple, practical point of view. You have an $8-10 trillion shortfall

expected in Social Security shortly. You have a $61 trillion shortfall

expected in Medicare. By the time Saturn and Pluto reach their midway point

in their down cycle (a waning square) in 2009-2010, " baby boomers' will

start retiring in droves. The number of people working to support the number

of people retiring will diminish substantially. The current projection for

the program is that it will run out of money by 2018, despite the claim from

some Congressmen that the program is fine until 2042. It would have been

fine until 2042 if the appropriation of funds for this program had been

implemented as planned. So, where is the money going to come from to cover

the expected shortfall, if you have less and less people contributing to a

system that needs to fund more and more people?

 

 

 

There are only four ways that I can think of to fund these

programs into the next decade and beyond. You raise taxes, borrow money

(issue more and more Treasury Bonds and Notes), extend the retirement age,

or hope for such a booming economy that more and more people will actually

work and make a lot more money and pay more into the current tax structure.

I don't think we can count on option #3 or 4, at least not in the few years

when the crisis needs to be worked out.

 

 

 

So we are looking at either raising taxes or borrowing more

money. President George W. Bush has ruled out " .raising taxes to finance a

Social Security overhaul to help the system survive an impending wave of

about 70 million retiring baby boomers, " according to a December 10

Associated Press article by Scott Lindlaw. OK. That leaves borrowing more

money through the issuance of Treasury Bonds and Notes. But that will

increase the Federal deficit, and President Bush has promised to cut the

Federal deficit in half during his final term in office. It just doesn't add

up.

 

 

 

And in an almost perfect example of this current Mercury retrograde period

of conflicting signals, the same article reports, " White House budget

director Joshua Bolten said the cost of implementing Bush's plan would not

undercut Bush's goal of cutting the deficit in half in the next 5 years.

Yet, he said, such costs 'may well' add to the short-term annual deficit. "

Huh?

 

 

 

Let's be practical again, because it sounds like the White House

plan to handle the crisis will involve at some issuing of more debt. What

happens when you do that? Well, when you increase the supply of anything,

its value goes down. When Treasuries go down in value that means yields

(interest rates) go up. And when interest rates go up at the same time your

deficit is increasing, then the deficit goes up even more because you have

more interest rate payments to make on that debt. At some point, the only

way to cut back the increasing national debt - if it increases too much - is

to raise taxes. And with the shortfall expected soon in Social Security and

Medicare, an awful lot of money is going to be needed to fund these

programs, starting around 2008, just as the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square

starts to come into orb. The last time we saw this configuration was in

1930-31. And if it is not dealt with then, the projected date of running out

money is 2018, just in time for the Saturn-Pluto conjunction in January

2020.

 

 

 

It just doesn't add up. And until financial messages from the White House do

add up, the price of basic commodities, like Gold and Crude Oil and even

food, may continue to rise into the end of this decade, while equity prices

around the world might struggle. But since this is a crisis mostly unique to

the United States , it is also a reason why currency values, vis-a-vis the

U.S. Dollar, may also continue to rise. Yes, we will likely see some

significant corrective declines in these markets in the next few months. In

fact, they may have started in the past 1-2 weeks. But the longer-term trend

in commodities and currency markets appears bullish. And that long-term

outlook can be a valuable basis for your investment decisions, as you try to

protect your capital through the next 15 years. After all, that is the

message of the down side of the Saturn-Pluto cycle: to " protect your

capital. " During the upside of this cycle (1982-2001), the economic climate

is conducive to " appreciating your capital, " through investments like

equities. It's a different world now, and the politicians are giving us no

reason yet to think this time will be any different than past Saturn-Pluto

down cycles.

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

(the link is only valid for one week)