Dean-Kelly Research Study

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Journal of Consciousness Studies

Volume 10, No. 6-7, June-July 2003

Special Double Issue:

 

PSI WARS:

Getting to Grips with the Paranormal

Edited by James Alcock, Jean Burns and Anthony Freeman

Full text also available from:

 

ABSTRACT:

http://www.imprint.co.uk/

 

Geoffrey Dean and Ivan W. Kelly

 

Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi?

Abstract: Many astrologers attribute a successful birth-chart reading to

what they call intuition or psychic ability, where the birth chart acts

like a crystal ball. As in shamanism, they relate consciousness to a

transcendent reality that, if true, might require a re-assessment of

present biological theories of consciousness. In Western countries roughly

1 person in 10,000 is practising or seriously studying astrology, so their

total number is substantial. Many tests of astrologers have been made since

the 1950s but only recently has a coherent review been possible.

 

A large-scale test of persons born less than five minutes apart found no

hint of the similarities predicted by astrology. Meta-analysis of more than

forty controlled studies suggests that astrologers are unable to perform

significantly better than chance even on the more basic tasks such as

predicting extraversion. More specifically, astrologers who claim to use

psychic ability perform no better than those who do not. The possibility

that astrology might be relevant to consciousness and psi is not denied,

but such influences, if they exist in astrology, would seem to be very weak

or very rare.

 

Professor I.W. Kelly, Department of Educational Psychology, 28 Campus

Drive, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada S7N 0X1. Email:

ivan.kelly

 

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COMMENTARY: TELEGRAPH ARTICLE

 

Astrologers fail to predict proof they are wrong

 

Thursday 4 December 2003

telegraph.co.uk

 

(Filed: 17/08/2003)

 

 

Good news for rational, level-headed Virgoans everywhere: just as you might

have predicted, scientists have found astrology to be rubbish, writes

Science Correspondent Robert Matthews.

 

 

Good news for rational, level-headed Virgoans everywhere: just as you might

have predicted, scientists have found astrology to be rubbish.

 

Its central claim - that our human characteristics are moulded by the

influence of the Sun, Moon and planets at the time of our birth - appears

to have been debunked once and for all and beyond doubt by the most

thorough scientific study ever made into it.

 

For several decades, researchers tracked more than 2,000 people - most of

them born within minutes of each other. According to astrology, the subject

should have had very similar traits.

 

The babies were originally recruited as part of a medical study begun in

London in 1958 into how the circumstances of birth can affect future

health. More than 2,000 babies born in early March that year were

registered and their development monitored at regular intervals.

 

Researchers looked at more than 100 different characteristics, including

occupation, anxiety levels, marital status, aggressiveness, sociability, IQ

levels and ability in art, sport, mathematics and reading - all of which

astrologers claim can be gauged from birth charts.

 

The scientists failed to find any evidence of similarities between the

" time twins " , however. They reported in the current issue of the Journal of

Consciousness Studies: " The test conditions could hardly have been more

conducive to success . . . but the results are uniformly negative. "

 

Analysis of the research was carried out by Geoffrey Dean, a scientist and

former astrologer based in Perth, Australia, and Ivan Kelly, a psychologist

at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada.

 

Dr Dean said the results undermined the claims of astrologers, who

typically work with birth data far less precise than that used in the

study. " They sometimes argue that times of birth just a minute apart can

make all the difference by altering what they call the 'house cusps', " he

said. " But in their work, they are happy to take whatever time they can get

from a client. "

 

The findings caused alarm and anger in astrological circles yesterday. Roy

Gillett, the president of the Astrological Association of Great Britain,

said the study's findings should be treated " with extreme caution " and

accused Dr Dean of seeking to " discredit astrology " .

 

Frank McGillion, a consultant to the Southampton-based Research Group for

the Critical Study of Astrology, said of the newly published work: " It is

simplistic and highly selective and does not cover all of the research. " He

added that he would lodge a complaint with the editors of the journal.

 

Astrologers have for centuries claimed to be able to extract deep insights

into the personality and destiny of people using nothing more than the

details of the time and place of birth.

 

Astrology has been growing in popularity. Surveys suggest that a majority

of people in Britain believe in it, compared with only 13 per cent 50 years

ago. The Association of Professional Astrologers claims that 80 per cent of

Britons read star columns, and psychological studies have found that 60 per

cent regularly read their horoscopes.

 

Despite the scepticism of scientists, astrology has grown to be a huge

worldwide business, spawning thousands of telephone lines, internet sites

and horoscope columns in newspapers and magazines.

 

It seems that no sector of society is immune to its attraction. A recent

survey found that a third of science students d to some aspects of

astrology, while some supposedly hard-headed businessmen now support a

thriving market in " financial astrology " - paying for predictions of trends

such as the rise and fall of the stock market. Astrology supplements have

been known to increase newspaper circulation figures and papers are

prepared to pay huge sums to the most popular stargazers.

 

Some of the most popular figures in the field, such as Russell Grant,

Mystic Meg and Shelley von Strunckel, can earn £600,000 or more a year.

 

A single profitable astrology website can be worth as much as £50 million.

 

When the Daily Mail discovered that its expert on the zodiac, Jonathan

Cainer, was about to leave the newspaper in 1999, it reportedly offered him

a £1 million salary and a £1 million bonus to stay. He still preferred the

offer at the Daily Express: no salary but all the money from his telephone

lines.

 

The time-twins study is only the start of the bad news for astrologers,

however. Dr Dean and Prof Kelly also sought to determine whether stargazers

could match a birth chart to the personality profile of a person among a

random selection.

 

They reviewed the evidence from more than 40 studies involving over 700

astrologers, but found the results turned out no better than guesswork.

 

The success rate did not improve even when astrologers were given all the

information they asked for and were confident they had made the right choice.

 

Dr Dean said the consistency of the findings weighed heavily against

astrology.

 

" It has no acceptable mechanism, its principles are invalid and it has

failed hundreds of tests, " he said. " But no hint of these problems will be

found in astrology books which, in effect, are exercises in deception. "

 

Dr Dean is ready for a torrent of criticism. He said: " I'm probably the

most hated person in astrology because I'm regarded as a turncoat. "

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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