Guest guest Posted August 8, 2006 Report Share Posted August 8, 2006 Hello, I had made the prediction earlier that federal reserve will pause interest rates hikes in August meeting. The prediction has come true. This puts one of the challenges made to me by Mr. Ramalingam to rest. Now lets see why this is really not a great prediction: This was on the cards and probaility of such an action was high. Some astrologers put some astro lingo into their prediction and put it out as some great victory for the science of astrology. If one carefully examines what they have predicted it is such a generality and a random selection would have same shot at coming out correct. Someone posted how one of SJC gurus predicted that congress will pass the treaty with India and SJC people hailed it as great predition. I mean give me a break,The bill will pass was on the cards. If what I predicted today is taken as a great prediction and a victory for astrology, it is a sad day for this predictive tool. Satish --- SPK <aquaris_rising > wrote: > Hello Sir, > > I predict that federal reserve will pause interest > rises soon. There is a strong chance of them pausing > at August meeting. They will discuss long and hard > about inflation threats.They will put lagguage in > the > statement that will indicate that it has come to the > end of the cycle of monitory tightening, but look at > the inflation data more carefully.. > > Market will initially take this news positivelty but > there will be uncertainty in markets due to rising > oil > prices and conflict in the middle east. > > Market will trade side ways ( Us market) for some > time. > > I predict that Sri lanka will do well in the tri > series in Sri lanka. South Africa will be > competitive > and India will be well lead by Dravid. Tendulakar > will > make a comback to the indian team and will be > successful but not spectaculary. > > Satish > > P.S. These are indications based on the current > planetary configurations and need not come true. > > --- ramalingam2_sekar <ramalingam2_sekar > > wrote: > > > - > > hello sir, > > why did u say any thing on srilanka? > > any way u must be like impotent film journalist > whom > > must be > > critising others movies with out ability to make > > one. > > > > please take this as a challenge. predict for one > > year on mudane > > astrology events . if it comes correct atleast 80% > > then we will > > respect ur opinion. if u are man enough please > take > > it.prove it by > > action.who wants theory there are dollar a dozen. > > maths theory some > > kind of new joke. > > it will hurt ur ego which comes from with out > > achieving any thing inw > > world of astrology and u will write some thing in > > retaliation for > > which no reply will come from me.it is easy to > > critisise others like > > arm chair people please do it by prediction?prove > by > > predicting > > better than mr.gopal . > > bye > > ramalingam > > > > > > > > -- In , SPK > > <aquaris_rising wrote: > > > > > > Hello Sundeep, > > > > > > Excellent post. I have been making similar point > > for > > > sometime now. Your post makes an excellent > > observation > > > of probability of being randomly correct. > > > > > > Its like someone saying that Australia will do > > well in > > > next cricket world cup. I mean they have been in > > > finals in the past 3 world cups, so someone > touts > > that > > > as a prediction, I feel that does not need any > > > astrological knowledge what so ever. If one puts > > > country chart and tithi pravesha and 20 > divisional > > > charts to back their prediction, I would > consider > > it a > > > waste of time as same can be arrived at with an > > ounce > > > of commonsense. > > > > > > Anyone who can read and can use a program to > cast > > a > > > horoscope can tell what lagna is in all the > > divisions, > > > what arudha is for a chart, yada yada yada. It > is > > > ameaningless banter. Predict when there are more > > than > > > two possibilities ( low probability of an event) > > and > > > do it consistently. > > > > > > Unfortunately I do not see anyone who can do > such > > a > > > thing, even the most celebrated ones can not do > > this. > > > Thats why astrology is not taken seriously by > most > > > rational people. > > > > > > Satish > > > > > > --- vedicastrostudent <vedicastrostudent > > > wrote: > > > > > > > Dear Bharatji, > > > > Not only that, I feel what most people dont > > > > understand is that in > > > > order to understand the true value of a > > prediction, > > > > you must > > > > additionally attach to it the probability of > > > > randomly being correct. > > > > For example, in two-outcome situations with > > > > approximately equally > > > > matched opponents e.g. a match between two > teams > > or > > > > an election > > > > between two candidates or a bill being > > > > passed/rejected by lawmakers, > > > > the probability of randomly being correct in a > > > > prediction, without > > > > using any principles whatsoever, is 0.5. > > > > Consequently, any prediction > > > > of such situations does not carry much weight > to > > > > begin with. In order > > > > for a prediction to carry a lot of weight, the > > > > probability of > > > > randomly being correct should be very low. > > > > > > > > For example, if an astrologer were to > correctly > > > > predict the month and > > > > year of birth of the first child of a person > > when > > > > the person was not > > > > even thinking of being married, it would be an > > > > extremely impressive > > > > prediction, because the probability of > randomly > > > > being correct would > > > > be very low. A random prediction would have to > > > > select from at least > > > > 10 childbearing years in each of which there > > would > > > > be 12 > > > > possibilities. So there would be at least a > 100 > > > > possibilities making > > > > the probability of a random hit being 0.01. > > > > > > > > Such predictions have to be highlighted (I > mean > > > > those in which random > > > > chance of correctness is very low). Otherwise, > > if > > > > two-outcome > > > > situations are what are to be focussed on, > then > > a > > > > string of two > > > > outcome situations must be shown e.g. a list > of > > > > twenty matches, in > > > > each of which the prediction came true. The > > > > probability of RANDOMLY > > > > being correct in ALL 20, would be > 0.5*0.5*0.5.. > > > > twenty times, which > > > > is very low. > > > > > > > > It is also not ok to post simply the matches > in > > > > which a prediction > > > > was correct. All matches for which predictions > > were > > > > made must be > > > > posted, even those that were wrong, so that an > > > > observant reader can > > > > contrast the random chance of success with the > === message truncated === Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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