Probability Analysis (Papal Changes , Eclipses and Nodes on the Pisces Axis)

[Guest guest]

Dear Jay,

 

Given that the combination is not something that happens everyday, even

happening in 5 cases is statistically very significant. Let me do some

probability analysis to drive my point home.

 

If you randomly take a date, what is the probability that there are two

successive eclipses caused by nodes in Pisces/Virgo within a month from that

date? Nodes are in Pisces/Virgo during 3 years out of every 18 years. Out of

these 3 years, there are at most 5 occasions of two successive eclipses. So the

dates that fall within a month from such occurrence are 5x45=225 days.

 

So the approximate probability that any date selected at random falls within a

month from an occurrence of two successive eclipses caused by nodes on the

Pisces axis is

 

225/(18x365) = 0.03.

 

So there is just a 3% chance that a randomly selected date satisfies this

combination. This is a very low probability event.

 

If we randomly select 7 dates, the probability that any 5 out of 7 dates satisfy

this combination is less than 0.000001. That means one-in-million! If you

randomly select 7 dates and check if 5 of those satisfy this combination, you

will have success once in a million attempts on average!!

 

So this is statistically very significant.

 

* * *

 

I just wanted to share the interesting observation and intentionally did not

give any logic to support this.

 

I am not sure if what I have observed with papal transitions in the last century

is due to a static feature in the chart of the papal institution or that of

Jesus Christ or due to a static symbolism/karakatwa (e.g. read the nice replies

to my post by Brendan Feeley and Pt Sanjay Rath on varahamihira ) or

due to some dasas/progressions.

 

So I have no expectation of what will happen if we try this on Popes from previous centuries.

 

If somebody has the data of papal death dates and papal ascension dates from

previous centuries, it will be interesting to analyze them.

 

May Jupiter's light shine on

us,Narasimha-------------------------------Free

Jyotish lessons (MP3): http://vedicastro.home.comcast.netFree Jyotish software

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http://www.SriJagannath.org-------------------------------

> Dear Narasimha,> Namaste,> > Very interesting and useful observation.>

However, 90 years are only 4.49% of 2005 years, and 5 popes out of 132 are only

3.8% ... > In my opinion a too small base for drawing 'final' conclusions but a

very good start...> > As a 'lover' of statistics I would have investigated the

time of death of ALL the popes in relation to eclipses since the known first

one, Viktor the II. who died 1057, and worked on an "academic report".>

Unfortunately I don't have the time for it at this moment but enclose a list of

all popes in case anyone like to delve into this adventure, (finding the date of

death, nearest eclipse date and do the statistics). Otherwise I'll do it as time

allows in the near future.

[Guest guest]

Narasimharao je,

 

Namaste,

 

First of all, thanks for pinpointing a unique

correlation. Being as student of

Econometrics/Statistics, I just want to share my two

cents.

 

Jay's viewpoint is valid when we consider last two

thousand years homogenous (normally distributed), and

infer conclusion on simple random sampling basis as

Jay argued.

 

But infact last two millioniums (of christianity) saw

great strucutral changes specially in 19th/20th

century, so the time frame should be divided into

different stratum. Inference, probability, correlation

etc. for different time stratum should be drawn

seperately, under such hetrogenity (non-normality).

 

Regards,

Imran

 

 

--- "Narasimha P.V.R. Rao" <pvr wrote:

 

> Dear Jay,

>

> Given that the combination is not something that

> happens everyday, even happening in 5 cases is

> statistically very significant. Let me do some

> probability analysis to drive my point home.

>

> If you randomly take a date, what is the probability

> that there are two successive eclipses caused by

> nodes in Pisces/Virgo within a month from that date?

> Nodes are in Pisces/Virgo during 3 years out of

> every 18 years. Out of these 3 years, there are at

> most 5 occasions of two successive eclipses. So the

> dates that fall within a month from such occurrence

> are 5x45=225 days.

>

> So the approximate probability that any date

> selected at random falls within a month from an

> occurrence of two successive eclipses caused by

> nodes on the Pisces axis is

>

> 225/(18x365) = 0.03.

>

> So there is just a 3% chance that a randomly

> selected date satisfies this combination. This is a

> very low probability event.

>

> If we randomly select 7 dates, the probability that

> any 5 out of 7 dates satisfy this combination is

> less than 0.000001. That means one-in-million! If

> you randomly select 7 dates and check if 5 of those

> satisfy this combination, you will have success once

> in a million attempts on average!!

>

> So this is statistically very significant.

>

> * * *

>

> I just wanted to share the interesting observation

> and intentionally did not give any logic to support

> this.

>

> I am not sure if what I have observed with papal

> transitions in the last century is due to a static

> feature in the chart of the papal institution or

> that of Jesus Christ or due to a static

> symbolism/karakatwa (e.g. read the nice replies to

> my post by Brendan Feeley and Pt Sanjay Rath on

> varahamihira ) or due to some

> dasas/progressions.

>

> So I have no expectation of what will happen if we

> try this on Popes from previous centuries.

>

> If somebody has the data of papal death dates and

> papal ascension dates from previous centuries, it

> will be interesting to analyze them.

>

> May Jupiter's light shine on us,

> Narasimha

>

-------------------------------

> Free Jyotish lessons (MP3):

> http://vedicastro.home.comcast.net

> Free Jyotish software (Windows):

> http://www.VedicAstrologer.org

> SJC website: http://www.SriJagannath.org

>

-------------------------------

>

> > Dear Narasimha,

> > Namaste,

> >

> > Very interesting and useful observation.

> > However, 90 years are only 4.49% of 2005 years,

> and 5 popes out of 132 are only 3.8% ...

> > In my opinion a too small base for drawing 'final'

> conclusions but a very good start...

> >

> > As a 'lover' of statistics I would have

> investigated the time of death of ALL the popes in

> relation to eclipses since the known first one,

> Viktor the II. who died 1057, and worked on an

> "academic report".

> > Unfortunately I don't have the time for it at this

> moment but enclose a list of all popes in case

> anyone like to delve into this adventure, (finding

> the date of death, nearest eclipse date and do the

> statistics). Otherwise I'll do it as time allows in

> the near future.

>