Probabilities (Astrological Nakshatras and Padas)

[Guest guest]

Aloha Moses,

 

> were interested first. I also realize that 52 cases is a relatively

small

> sample size, so i am having these degrees checked with a much larger

sample

> size using AstroDatabank software.

 

I am glad you realize that. More on this after a little probability

analysis...

 

BTW, good luck with your research!

 

> What i used was this: all planets, including outer planets, chiron,

the four

> major asteroids, all four major angles, the north and south nodes

using true

> node, the part of fortune using only day-formula calculations, and

the

> vertex. These are all fairly commonly used in western astrology.

Anyone with

> one of these placements showing up at least two degrees on either

side of the

> listed degrees counted for that degree.

 

Thank you for clarifying. Three comments:

 

(1) Let us answer this important question: If we take a *random*

degree and see if a body is within 2 deg from it, what is the

mathematically expected percentage of positive cases?

 

For each body, you are considering a 4 degree arc (2 deg on either

side).

 

The probability that a chosen body is in the arc is 4/360.

 

The probability that a chosen body is NOT in the arc is 356/360, i.e.

89/90.

 

Now the probability that NONE of the 23 bodies listed by you is in the

arc is (89/90) power 23. [Note: We are assuming that they are all

independent events. So P(A and B) = P(A)xP(B). That is true except in

the case of nodes. But, this makes very little difference. The correct

calculation actually makes my argument a bit stronger. So don't hold

that against my calculations.]

 

It is 0.77.

 

Now the probability that atleast one of the 23 bodies listed by you is

within the arc is 1-0.77 = 0.23, i.e. 23%.

 

This means the following:

 

"If you take any *random* degree and see if one of the 23 bodies you

listed is within 2 degrees from it, you will get a positive answer in

23% cases on average."

 

Considering that the expected percentage among all people is 23% and

that your sample set is really small, 38% concentration at a point or

25% concentration at another point means nothing. Even if your sample

set is larger, 25%, 26%, 27% mean nothing (you listed such percentages

close to 23). When 23% of all people have a combination, just 25% of

all astrologer having it means nothing. If you find 38% concentration

at a point with a sample set of 5,000 astrologer charts, THEN it means

something though.

 

In any case, realize that the average percentage among all people to

expect for any random degree is 23%. Keep that in mind when looking at

percentages with astrologers!

 

[Note: I am assuming that you took only 23 bodies that you listed

above. If you actually took a few more, the expected percentage will

be even higher!]

 

(2) Now, let us say you test on 5,000 cases and really come up with

something. That's good. But, is it useful for predictions? No! If a

combination is satisfied in 23% of all people overall and in 38%

astrologers, you cannot expect a person to be an astrologer just on

the basis of that combination.

 

(3) Don't get me wrong. I want to encourage ANY statistical research

in astrology. However, studies that are based on intelligent

formulations (as opposed to simplistic formulations) and studies that

come after reasonable sanity checks are more meaningful and more

likely to be *useful*. We are a small community (I mean scientifically

oriented astrologers) and we don't want to waste our energy!

 

I request everyone interested in statistical studies to kindly read

chapter 33 ("Rational Thinking") in my book "Vedic Astrology: An

Integrated Approach" (Sagar publications, 2001). It has some pointers

that one should know. An excerpt from it is on my homepage too

(http://www.VedicAstrologer.org).

 

In general, if you are a western astrologer with *some* background in

Vedic astrology, you should find a lot of real Vedic astrology in my

book. If you understand the umpteen building blocks of Vedic astrology

clearly, that should also help you in more meaningful statistical

researches. Vedic astrology is an extremely refined and vast subject

and many western astrologers who think they know Vedic astrology know

only a litttttle bit of it. What many western astrologers know of

Vedic astrology is only the tip of an iceberg.

 

If you are not interested in deepening your knowledge of Vedic

astrology, atleast read chapter 33. It is about statistical research

into astrology.

 

May Jupiter's light shine on us,

Narasimha

http://www.VedicAstrologer.org