Probabilities (Astrological Nakshatras and Padas)

[Guest guest]

Thanks so much for your help, Narasimha. I was waiting until i got the

AstroDatabank info to see if anything actually came up, before checking what

the random statistical probabilities would be. But you have helped me to do

that, already, and i am grateful for your input. More below...

Aloha Moses,

> were interested first. I also realize that 52 cases is a relatively

small

> sample size, so i am having these degrees checked with a much larger

sample

> size using AstroDatabank software.

I am glad you realize that. More on this after a little probability

analysis...

BTW, good luck with your research!

> What i used was this: all planets, including outer planets, chiron,

the four

> major asteroids, all four major angles, the north and south nodes

using true

> node, the part of fortune using only day-formula calculations, and

the

> vertex. These are all fairly commonly used in western astrology.

Anyone with

> one of these placements showing up at least two degrees on either

side of the

> listed degrees counted for that degree.

Thank you for clarifying. Three comments:

(1) Let us answer this important question: If we take a *random*

degree and see if a body is within 2 deg from it, what is the

mathematically expected percentage of positive cases?

For each body, you are considering a 4 degree arc (2 deg on either

side).

The probability that a chosen body is in the arc is 4/360.

The probability that a chosen body is NOT in the arc is 356/360, i.e.

89/90.

Now the probability that NONE of the 23 bodies listed by you is in the

arc is (89/90) power 23. [Note: We are assuming that they are all

independent events. So P(A and B) = P(A)xP(B). That is true except in

the case of nodes. But, this makes very little difference. The correct

calculation actually makes my argument a bit stronger. So don't hold

that against my calculations.]

It is 0.77.

Actually it's even more than this. The actual arc that i used was five degrees,

so it's .725, meaning that 27.5% should be the average. And since the nodes and

all four angles are guaranteed to be in different locations, it would actually

be a bit higher than this. However, this seems strange to me compared to what

seemed to be seeing amongst the charts i looked at, but i'll know more soon.

The degree that came up the most in my 52 cases was around 13 Leo, at 49.0%. I'm

mainly curious to see if that holds up. The next was around 18 Gemini at around

38.5%. And the next was 17 Scorpio at 36.8%. After doing this, i'll know one

way or another, and then i'll be more able to say if there do seem to be some

astrological degrees, or padas. I think it would be very good to at least know

if this is true, so that we know if there's any point in ever saying that there

are such things as astrological degrees, or astrological nakshatras or padas,

wouldn't you agree? If i find certain degrees that seem significant, then i

would want to check and see which chart placements might be most common in

these places. I'm not saying that i would predict an astrologer strictly on the

basis of just this degree, but it could be one more piece of evidence to

consider. So yes, i do think it could be somewhat useful in prediction, but

also useful in other ways.

What i'm just as interested in is this: The northern heliocentric planetary node

of Neptune is around 12 Leo. If this degree comes up in the tropical system as

significant amongst astrologers, for one thing, it could be further evidence as

to the validity of the planetary nodes, which are sometimes used within the

tropical-western system, and which some, such as Jeff Green and Zip Dobbins,

maintain are very important. The next two degrees that i came up with, 18

Gemini and 17 Scorpio, are the northern planetary nodes of Venus and Mercury,

respectively. So i am very curious to see if there are somehow statistically

significant connections with the planetary nodes, or not.

If this is the case, then i think this study just might be an intelligent

formulation, complete with a sanity check.

thanks again my friend,

love and aloha,

moses

Now the probability that atleast one of the 23 bodies listed by you is

within the arc is 1-0.77 = 0.23, i.e. 23%.

This means the following:

"If you take any *random* degree and see if one of the 23 bodies you

listed is within 2 degrees from it, you will get a positive answer in

23% cases on average."

Considering that the expected percentage among all people is 23% and

that your sample set is really small, 38% concentration at a point or

25% concentration at another point means nothing. Even if your sample

set is larger, 25%, 26%, 27% mean nothing (you listed such percentages

close to 23). When 23% of all people have a combination, just 25% of

all astrologer having it means nothing. If you find 38% concentration

at a point with a sample set of 5,000 astrologer charts, THEN it means

something though.

In any case, realize that the average percentage among all people to

expect for any random degree is 23%. Keep that in mind when looking at

percentages with astrologers!

[Note: I am assuming that you took only 23 bodies that you listed

above. If you actually took a few more, the expected percentage will

be even higher!]

(2) Now, let us say you test on 5,000 cases and really come up with

something. That's good. But, is it useful for predictions? No! If a

combination is satisfied in 23% of all people overall and in 38%

astrologers, you cannot expect a person to be an astrologer just on

the basis of that combination.

(3) Don't get me wrong. I want to encourage ANY statistical research

in astrology. However, studies that are based on intelligent

formulations (as opposed to simplistic formulations) and studies that

come after reasonable sanity checks are more meaningful and more

likely to be *useful*. We are a small community (I mean scientifically

oriented astrologers) and we don't want to waste our energy!

I request everyone interested in statistical studies to kindly read

chapter 33 ("Rational Thinking") in my book "Vedic Astrology: An

Integrated Approach" (Sagar publications, 2001). It has some pointers

that one should know. An excerpt from it is on my homepage too

(http://www.VedicAstrologer.org).

In general, if you are a western astrologer with *some* background in

Vedic astrology, you should find a lot of real Vedic astrology in my

book. If you understand the umpteen building blocks of Vedic astrology

clearly, that should also help you in more meaningful statistical

researches. Vedic astrology is an extremely refined and vast subject

and many western astrologers who think they know Vedic astrology know

only a litttttle bit of it. What many western astrologers know of

Vedic astrology is only the tip of an iceberg.

If you are not interested in deepening your knowledge of Vedic

astrology, atleast read chapter 33. It is about statistical research

into astrology.

May Jupiter's light shine on us,

Narasimha

http://www.VedicAstrologer.org