Ancient Methods of Weather Forecasts Superior

[Guest guest]

Ancient Methods of Weather Forecasts Superior

 

Rain forecasting by Panchangs more accurate than by IMD

By Arabinda Ghose

 

SCIENCE and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal on February 21, 2005 made

a pretty disparaging remark not only about the political class which

includes himself but also the India Meteorological Department (IMD)

of the Government of India which is under his direct control.

 

"Like politicians, the Meteorological Department has very little

credibility," he said, while inaugurating a five-day meeting of the

joint panel of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the

Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific region

(ESCAP) on tropical cyclones. "The IMD needs to take steps to ensure

the credibility of its forecasts," he added.

 

The common man in India would agree with Shri Sibal's observation

about both politicians and the India Meteorological Department.

Leaving aside politics and politicians, we may recall that in the

recent past, forecasts about the south-west monsoon made by IMD in

2003 and 2004 had gone awry. We are aware of the disastrous drought

of 2002 and the 2004 drought which was less severe. It has pushed

down the estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) with respect to

agriculture for the cor the current financial year to just 1.10 per cent

from

a high of 9.30 per cent in 2003-2004.

 

Is there an alternative to monsoon forecasts which would be more

accurate so that farmers can plan their agricultural programmes on

that basis? Well, three scientists from Varanasi, one of them an

astrology teacher, have claimed that rainfall forecasts made by four

of the oldest panchangs (almanacs) published from Varanasi have been

largely accurate, the percentage of accuracy being in the

neighbourhood of 80 as compared to the generally accepted percentage of 60

in case of those made by IMD.

 

This claim has been made in an article in the magazine Asian Agri-

History, published from Secunderabad by the Asian Agri-History

Foundation, of which the Managing Editor is Dr Y.L. Nene. Dr Nene

retired a few years ago from the Patancheru (Hyderabad)-based

International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

(ICRISAT) and has devoted all his time and resources to bring out

this magazine which highlights the achievements of Indians and other

Asians in the past in many aspects of agriculture. The article

appeared in the January-March 2002 issue of the magazine.

 

The three scientists in question are: Shri S.K. Mishra, Shri V.K.

Dubey, and Shri R.C. Pandey. The first is with the Department of

Extension Education, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras

Hindu University; the second is with the Krishi Vigyan Kendra,

Central Rice Research Institute, Cuttack and the third is with the

Department of Jyotish, Faculty of Sanskrit Learning and Theology,

Banaras Hindu University.

 

The four panchangs mentioned are the Drik-Siddhartha, Shri Ganesh,

Hrishikesh and Vishwa, all published from Varanasi and data about the

forecasts have been collected for full half a century-from 1946 to

1995. These, based on astro-meteorological theories-have been

compared with the actual meteorological data of the IMD on a day-to-

day basis.

 

They claim in an article that "the percentage of yearly overall

pooled correct predictions (practically correct plus fully-correct

predictions) made during the 50-year period in these four panchangs

were 79-58 per cent, 82-89 per cent, 97.76 per cent and 77.74 per

cent respectively and which were far better as compared to the

average long-range rainfall prediction (abut 60 per cent) of IMD."

 

The India Meteorological Department, a wing of the Ministry of

Science and Technology, had in 1988 devised a statistical model based

on 16 parameters under the leadership of Dr Vasant Gowarikar,

Secretary, Government of India. This model proved to be generally

right in its predictions for long-range monsoon forecasts, except in

2002. Thereupon, Dr Kelkar. devised an eight-parameter power

regression model. The forecast made on this proved remarkably

accurate in 2003.

 

However, its forecast for 2004 monsoon went off the mark, which

probably made the new Minister of Science and Technology, Kapil Sibal make

that remark on February 21. One must add here that the Gowarikar model

forecasts had proved right for 13 years in a row till 2001.

 

The three scientists are of the opinion that meteorology may be a new

science for the West. However, in India, "this science has been in

existence from a very early date as astrological forecasting of

weather phenomena. A systematic study of this science was made by our

ancient astrologers and astronomers. The rules are simple and

dispense with costly apparatus. Observations coupled with experience

extending over centuries enabled the great sages of India to delve

deep into the subject of astrology and discover the laws governing

weather, rainfall, storms, etc., which are of utmost importance to

mankind."

 

They say that the ancient/indigenous methods of weather forecasts may

be broadly classified into two categories; Observational Methods-

atmospheric changes, bio-indicators, chemical changes, physical

changes, cloud formsationsand other sky features; and 2. Theoretical

Methods-astrological factors or planetary factors like computation of

planetary positions and conjunction of planets and stars, etc., study

of solar ingress and particular dates of months; study of nakshatra

chakras, study of nadi chakras, study of Dashtapa Siddhanta."

 

The writers claimed that predictions for monsoon rainfall in these

four panchangs too were quite accurate, with the percentages ranging

between 83 and 91.