When dragon and elephant embrace

[Guest guest]

LETTER FROM INDIA: When the dragon and the elephant embrace

V.M.GOKULDAS

 

OCT 3:

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YESTERDAY was the deadline for the Himalayan barrier to melt. Even

if they did not keep the date, India and China are on their way to

creating history next spring. The reopening of a historic trade

route after four decades clears the road to their past. And the

future.

For centuries, Nathu La (La means "mountain pass") was on the Silk

Route. Indian traders crossed the hump at some 14,500 feet above sea

level, into Tibet and sold their wares. The Tibetans, too, paid

return visits. There was a thriving trade. And not just trade. Nathu

La was the north-south gateway for the two neighbours.

 

But things changed when the Dalai Lama, spiritual head of Tibet's

Buddhists, used the route to flee Tibet and take political asylum in

India in 1959.

 

A military conflict three years later between India and China made

Nathu La a hot spot. A barbed wire fence divided the dragon and the

elephant.

 

As relations gradually improved, this writer visited it in 1985, to

be told that a week earlier, some Delhi schoolchildren had been

there on a picnic. A good 15 years later in February 2000,

accompanying Indian army chief, General V. P. Malik was an exciting

moment. Chinese soldiers were surprised at seeing an Indian general

come with gifts and greetings.

 

Beijing and New Delhi have since been working quietly at Nathu La,

not raising either great hopes or hackles. But there is excitement

where it matters — in Sikkim. Says Chief Minister Pawan Kumar

Chamling: "Investors from industry and organisations such as the

World Bank will no doubt be attracted to Sikkim."

 

Like the buses plying to and from Pakistan and Ban- gladesh,

Chamling hopes to launch a bus service from Gangtok to Lhasa.

 

 

 

Optimistic business forums predict regional exports to Sikkim will

touch US$203 million (RM750 million. The Indian Chamber of Commerce

(ICC) has predicted unprecedented economic development of the entire

region, which includes the Greater Mekong region of Laos, Cambodia,

Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, Bhu- tan and the Yunnan province of

China.

 

However, it has based its predictions on some conditions. It hopes

to secure the entire Indian northeastern region as a market for

Chinese goods. Secondly, India has to become a new source of

intermediate products, which could feed Chinese factories that

produce manufactured goods. Thirdly, the northeastern region would

have to push itself and become an agro-export zone.

 

Partnerships and joint ventures would help access the markets of

third countries such as Taiwan, Indochina, Japan and Korea by

utilising the Chinese export marketing network.

 

All this is easier said than done. Indeed, there are reservations in

India on the construction of road, rail and air links in the Tibet

Autonomous Region. There are fears that the ongoing 1,118-km railway

project to link Gormo in China's Qinghai province with Lhasa in

Tibet will enhance the capability of Chinese troops in Tibet. This

railway line, at a whopping US$27.2 billion, will connect Lhasa with

four major centres in China. That this network of defence feeder

railway lines from mainland China will touch the border with India

has put the Indian defence establishment on alert. Two former prime

ministers, P.V. Nara- simha Rao and H.D. Deve Gowda, had rejected

proposals to open the trade route.

 

Nevertheless, Nathu La will open. Why did it take so long? It has

been touch-and- go too often in Sino-Indian relations. Many think

the misunderstandings that led to the military conflict in 1962

could have been resolved. In 1969, Indira Gandhi expressed

willingness to resume relations and in 1970, Mao Zedong smiled his

famous smile, calling India "a great country", adding: "They should

live as friends. They cannot quarrel." But the next year, India got

embroiled in Bangladesh. China sided with its ally Pakistan.

 

India's designation of Arunachal Pradesh as a centrally-administered

territory angered China. After Sikkim joined the Indian Union, China

remained the world's only power not to recognise it as part of India.

 

Atal Behari Vajpayee's 1979 visit as foreign minister was

complicated by the Chinese attack on Vietnam. Deng Xiaoping added to

India's discomfiture by tactlessly drawing a parallel with the

Chinese action against India in 1962. The Indian Foreign Minister

had to cut short his visit.

 

Increasing influence in Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar, not to speak

of the long-standing defence relationship with Pakistan and lack of

support for India's membership to the United Nations Security

Council — all point to China's attempts to prevent India's rise as a

regional and global player. It is a strategy China has consistently

pursued without any apologies.

 

Progress on the contentious border dispute has been slow and

halting, despite a number of high-level interactions. Yet a measure

of understanding has been reached in the last decade. The roadblock

caused by India testing nuclear devices in 1998 was surmounted

faster than anyone could have imagined. The two now meet on the

sidelines of conferences and at the UN, often finding convergence of

ideas and interests.

 

In a money-driven relationship, India no longer fears cheap Chinese-

made goods — including idols of Hindu deities. Trade has crossed

US$13 billion and may touch US$20 billion by 2008, ahead of the 2010

target. Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said in Washington

last week that far from envying China, he wanted to emulate its high

rate of economic growth.

 

Bluntly put, India and China are two Asian powers with global

aspirations and significant conflicting interests. Some friction in

their bilateral relationship is inevitable. The geopolitical reality

makes sure that it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible,

for "Hindi-Chini" to be bhai-bhai (brothers) in the foreseeable

future. But measures like trade across Nathu La can ensure a more

meaningful relationship to the mutual good of the mankind's largest

and the second-largest entities.

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