CHINA WARNS UNITED STATES ON EVE OF VISIT

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CHINA WARNS UNITED STATES ON EVE OF PRESIDENTIAL VISIT: An Analysis

 

"If the Americans are determined to interfere…. we will be

determined to respond, and we Chinese will prepare ourselves for the

destruction of all cities east of Xian" (a major city in Central

China)"Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that

hundreds of, or two hundreds of (or) even more cities will be

destroyed by the Chinese".

 

by Dr Subhash Kapila

 

Introductory Observations:

http://saag.org/papers16/paper1527.html

China continues to add to the contentiousness of United States –

China relations, with hardly a week to go for the Chinese President's

visit to the United States. A perspective analysis of President Bush-

President Hu Jintao meeting stands published in this authors

paper "United States: Visit of China's President (September 7,2005):

An Analysis" (SAAG Paper No 1525 dated 30th August,2005). The major

conclusion was that with the mutually suspicious perceptions of

United States and China, no dramatic breakthrough seems feasible in

the presidential meeting on September7, 2005.

 

China's latest warning to the United States in relation to Taiwan

emanated on September 1, 2005. The issue of a 17,000 word broad

policy document – A white paper on China's policies on arms control,

disarmament and proliferation was used as a guise to issue implicit

warnings to United States over Taiwan.

 

For purposes of analysis, this paper will only address three related

aspects, namely (1) United States commitments and weapons sales to

Taiwan (2) China's reiteration of its nuclear policies, and (3)

China's current implicit warning to the United States. The overall

atmospherics in United States – China relations in terms of

suspicious intentions and perceptions stand analyzed in the paper,

referred above.

 

United States Commitment on Taiwan's Security and Weapons Sales:

 

Taiwan's security against any attack by China enjoys a very broad-

band support in the United States. It is also a very emotive issue

for the United States Congress enjoying bi-partisan support.

 

The United States stands officially pledged to assist Taiwan in its

efforts to defend itself against any invasion by China

 

The United States even in its latest paper on" China's Military

Modernization" has focused on China's invasion plans for Taiwan. In

particular, a recurring theme has been the building of China's

ballistic missiles across Taiwan. The US report states that China has

now massed 600-700 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. China is also

honing its amphibious warfare and airborne invasion capabilities.

 

In the above context, the United States has on offer the following

weapons sales package to Taiwan

 

PATRIOT anti missile systems US offer is on the latest PAC3 Version

which only USA and Japan have.

3 batteries

 

Anti submarine warfare aircraft

12

 

Diesel electric submarines

8

 

 

The United States is also considering additionally ballistic missile

defense shield systems for Japan and Taiwan.

 

China's Reiteration of its Nuclear Policies

 

China has been defining its nuclear policies every year either

through its Annual Defense White Papers or special white papers on

disarmament, arms control and proliferation. On being questioned on

the document released on September, 01, 2005, China's Foreign

Ministry head of the relevant disarmament division reiterated:

 

"We have solemnly promised that we will not use nuclear weapons

first, or threaten non-nuclear countries and regions with nuclear

weapons at any time and under any circumstances."

 

Further, he said

 

"This promise has never changed and will not change in the future"

 

The Chinese official gave the above replies as a response to even the

specific question whether the above Chinese policies applied to

Taiwan also.

 

Analytically, the response in relation to Taiwan was evasive; China

does not consider Taiwan as any other "country". China claims Taiwan

as a "part of China". If China reserves the right to use nuclear

weapons against Taiwan it will be the first instance in world affairs

where a country would use nuclear weapons against a "region" of its

territory. It is inconceivable for China to do, but then why the

ambiguity is being so evasively maintained.

 

China's Current Warnings to United States over Taiwan

 

The first Chinese warning to the United States over Taiwan was issued

in July 2005 by General Zhu Chenghu who stated that Beijing might

respond with nuclear weapons if United States interfered in a China-

Taiwan conflict. His statements merit consideration for analysis;

 

· "If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided

ammunition into the target zone in Chinas territory (read Taiwan), I

think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons".

 

· "If the Americans are determined to interfere…. we will be

determined to respond, and we Chinese will prepare ourselves for the

destruction of all cities east of Xian" (a major city in Central

China)

 

· "Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that

hundreds of, or two hundreds of (or) even more cities will be

destroyed by the Chinese".

 

The second Chinese warning to USA emanated in implicit terms on

September 1, 2005 when releasing the Chinese document on the

subject. The Chinese Foreign Ministry official spokesperson made

these pointed statements:

 

· "As the Taiwan question involves its core interests, China

opposes the attempt by any country (read USA) to provide help or

protection to the Taiwan region of China in the field of missile

defense by any means". (Reflected in the document)

 

· "On relevant countries (read USA) deployment of missile

defense system, China stance is: We think it will affect global

stability, international strategic stability, relations between

nations and regional security".

 

· "It will trigger the proliferation of missile technologies.

So we hope relevant countries (read USA) could take a prudent

attitude in the regard"

 

In simple words China is warning USA to "lay-off" on Taiwan

 

Chinese Warnings to USA: An Analysis

 

China's warnings to USA over Taiwan are intriguing for the following

reasons:

 

· Does China seriously expect that the United Stated would be

cowed down by such Chinese warnings?

 

· Does China think, that it can militarily "teach a lesson"

(China's favourite strategy) to USA, if USA does not heed China's

warnings?

 

· Is it part of China's domestic posturing for its party

hardliners, that President Hu Jintao would talk tough in his

discussions with President Bush in September 7, 2005?

 

· Is it an implied warning to Japan also (currently election

campaign inode) not to participate in US Japan theatre missile

defense systems?

 

On all the counts above, China is being unrealistic in expecting that

its end-objectives will be met.

 

Taiwan is the United States and Japan's floating aircraft carrier

astride vital sea lanes of communication, whose falling into Chinese

hands would jeoparadise US and Japanese national security. China is

being unrealistic to expect that USA would abandon Taiwan, just

because China desires so.

 

In its own calculations, China having given these warnings would now

feel free to embark on its additional process of missile

proliferation. One can expect the following from China.

 

· Increase in China's missile supplies to Pakistan. The

current Pakistan cruise missile test was a Chinese missile (older

version). It was a response to the perceived US tilt towards India.

It was not a Pakistan creation.

 

· China missile proliferation to Iran, Syria and possible up-

gradation of the 15 year old CSS-2 missiles of Saudi Arabia, supplied

by China

 

It needs to be remembered, that in terms of demonstrated patterns,

China has always reacted to American military support - related

developments in Taiwan, by creating Chinese counter-pressure points

for USA in the Middle East

 

The United States has to be therefore more prepared to deal with

China's counter-pressure points in the Middle East, than in East Asia

 

Concluding Observations

 

China does not seem to be serious in investing credibly in the

improvement of China - United States relations.

 

If it was so, then the direct and implied warnings by China as

elucidated above would not have emanated on the very eve of the

Chinese President's visit to USA

 

China's core problem, like that of its protégé in South Asia, namely

Pakistan, is that, both do not seem to recognize their strategic

asymmetries with whom they contend.

 

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs

analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia

Analysis Group. Email drsubhashkapila)