INDIA & THE DRAUPADI STRATEGY

[Guest guest]

Paper no. 1476

26. 07. 2005

 

INDIA & THE DRAUPADI STRATEGY

 

Guest Column by Gaurang Bhatt

South Asia Analysis Group

 

>From its independence and the subsequent jilting by the Dulles

brotherhood and Eisenhower administration due to Nehru's egotistic

pseudo-moral stand, India found common cause with the Soviet Union

while turning a blind eye to the atrocities of totalitarian

dictatorship masquerading as the rule of the proletariat. An

understandable reluctance to align with western imperialism after a

millennium of Islamic and European colonization is another basis for

India's past foreign policy. Pakistan's prompt falling in line by

joining CENTO and other alliances with America and its more

strategic location, set in stone the India-Pakistan equating

policies of America and the resultant fifty year pro-Pakistan tilt.

 

Time has shown that Pakistan is nothing more than a one night stand

for America when its attention is on its neighborhood. Its services

are to be purchased by money, arms or threats when needed, and to be

thrown away or ignored when the American desires are sated. The

recent bombings in London and the constant stalling of efforts to

root out jihadists from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, together

with the disenchantment with China by the current American

administration, have seriously damaged the pro-Pakistani factions

amongst the administration and foreign policy elite. It is therefore

crucial for India not to fall into the trap of Pakistan's status.

Words and agreements are cheap and worthless unless followed by

deeds. The recent defense and technology agreements have to result

in concrete transfers and not bogged down in bureaucratic inertia.

As C. Northcote Parkinson's third law states and the motto of Indian

bureaucracy proves, delay is the deadliest form of denial.

 

India can take the Ahalya approach and pretend to be fooled by its

newest seducer's disguised motives in return for transient novel

ecstasy, and risk being turned into a stone for much of its future

history with the hope of being restored to its pristine status by a

future messianic Rama. On the other hand, it can take the Damayanti

approach by being true and devoted to the Russian Nala, who deserted

it in the Yeltsin era under the influence of the all powerful and

ever scheming Kaliyuga and hope to live happily after much pain and

stress in the interim period. A much wiser approach would be to bind

all the five Pandavas in a strictly structured relationship that

causes no jealousies or conflicts and allowed Draupadi to manipulate

all of them to suit her purposes.

 

The five factions that India has to appease and manipulate are the

Middle Eastern Muslim states, Israel, Russia, China and America. The

EU, while an important player is ridden by internal divisions. Its

educated masses have a morbid fear of losing their unsustainable

welfare state due to the threat of jobs moving to cheaper labor of

newer members. Their other fear is of terrorism by their faster

growing disenchanted significant Muslim minorities. They are thus

unable to spend enough to project force and unwilling to involve

their military in even their near abroad, as their inertia in the

Serbia- Bosnia- Kosovo crisis proves. Thus India needs to maintain

good relations without provocation while increasing trade and

transfer of technology. Italy is the weakest link and lacks large

manufacturers in comparison to Britain, France and Germany. In the

past it has survived by running larger budget deficits and regular

devaluations of the Lira to maintain its competitiveness in trade.

These options have been closed due to the Euro and EU budget. The

generally slow growths of the EU countries may yet derail the

union.

 

The Middle Eastern Muslim states are players because of their

essential energy resources, the large number of expatriate Indians

working there, who are a source of large foreign exchange

remittances to India, and India's large Muslim minorities. Iran

stands out differently and prominently because it is Shia and thus

not afflicted with Ladenism and because it is the neighbor of our

neighboring enemy. Thus setting up a gas pipeline or even better a

LNG facility at one of the Iranian Gulf ports should be a prime

priority. Gas pipelines from Iran via Pakistan and Burma via

Bangladesh may provide an economic incentive for these bellicose

rogue nations to modify their behavior for the better due to the

rich windfall of transit fees.

 

Israel is a source of sophisticated arms and shares our fear of

Islamic radicalism. Its treatment of Palestinians deserves

condemnation and our relationship with Iran is a thorn in its and

America's side. We should bring our unhappiness regarding their

policies to their attention quietly and discreetly without indulging

in Stentorian moralism of Nehru. The Arthashastra, Panchatantra and

Machiavelli in chronological order have stated that the behavior of

kings (governments) often follows the rules of morality and virtues

that are the distinct obverse of those in dealings between

individuals.

 

Russia in the past has been a reliable supporter by way of arms

supplies and the use of its UN Security Council veto and continues

to be our prime source of military technology. We should maintain

the relationship without making it exclusive. Our past experience

with American sanctions and the notoriously whimsical behavior of

American presidents and congresses should prevent us from being

foolhardy to make America a prime supplier. Thus military purchases

must be judicially parsed between Russia, Israel, EU and America to

avoid being vulnerable to the displeasure of one or two of them. In

the meantime our indigenous capabilities need to be advanced.

 

China is our neighbor and potential adversary. It has miraculous

rates of growth and within 20 to 50 years is poised to match or even

surpass the American GDP. It is downright foolish to foster enmity

with an immediate neighbor destined to be a major world power. Thus

we have to be competitively powerful to avoid being subservient. A

careful study of its strategy reveals much to emulate. Even when it

did not have nuclear weapons, it did not back down against America

during the Korean War. It took Russia's help to modernize while

overlooking its previous usurpation of territory and attacked India

in 1962 to assert its claim to prior territory captured by British

India. It occupied Tibet and flooded it and the Western Uighur

regions with Han Chinese unhampered by self-destructive policies

like India's Article 370. It continued to support Vietnam in the war

with America while establishing relations with America in the Nixon

era and allowing listening posts for America to spy on Russian space

and nuclear sites after its fallout with Russia. It attacked its

ally Vietnam to teach it a lesson for its interference in Cambodia

and overthrow of Pol Pot. It allowed Taiwan to set up many factories

to exploit cheap Chinese labor while still threatening to militarily

re-unite the renegade province.

 

It exploited the greed of American companies and the desire for

cheap goods of the American public to lure huge American

investments, hollow out American manufacturing and become the second

largest creditor nation at the cost of exploiting its own citizens

by slave labor. Recently when its large dollar holdings were denied

the purchase of American companies like Maytag and Unocal, and it

was threatened with 27.5% tariffs, it severed the parity of its

currency to the dollar and has tied to a secret basket of

currencies. This is a shot across the bow to threaten to stop buying

US treasuries helping to keep interest rates low and funding

America's current account deficit. This was probably also a response

to America's criticism of its increased militarization and the

signing of pacts with India with a potential of China's encirclement

and containment. A Chinese general had no hesitation in threatening

to nuke Los Angeles if a war occurs over Taiwan. The general was not

demoted or transferred as happened to General Vij for his actions in

the defense of his country. China continues to run with the hare and

hunt with the hounds like Musharraf (Taliban, Al Qaeda and America)

in the matter of North Korea's nuclear arms. It overtly speaks

against them while covertly subsidizing North Korea and probably

supplying technology as it did to Pakistan, which it props up to

stunt and stifle India's progress. It is now the largest arms client

of Russia and recipient of its technology transfer. It continues to

drive a wedge between the EU and America by lobbying against the

American supported EU arms embargo while increasing trade with

America.

 

India has a lot of lessons to learn from Chinese diplomacy and

strategy. It must not be forgotten that Draupadi was a boon obtained

via Yagna by Drupad, who sought the destruction of the Pandavas and

Kauravas as a revenge for their humiliation of him on behalf of

their Guru Drona. China has a chip on each shoulder. One for its

humiliation by the western powers in the nineteenth century when the

British forcibly sold opium from India to China and most western

nations captured coastal enclaves where they ruled and the Chinese

were coolies just like the British, French and Portuguese did in

India. The second chip is for its humiliation by America in the

twentieth century in the matter of Taiwan, Even now the Chinese

military doctrine and strategy are devised on the basis of war games

with America. My recommendations for India are not so vindictive or

Machiavellian. They are just for India to prosper like America did

in the early nineteenth century under aegis of the British and to

lesser extent the French, while standing up to the Spanish in the

Americas. Just as Draupadi did against her enemies with the support

of her five spouses without arousing internal jealousy.

 

Finally America, though an insurmountable military power is waning

economically. It lives on borrowed money and time, marching

relentlessly and unfortunately nonchalantly but knowingly to its

doom, like the words of Longfellow's poem. India has the advantage

that it has enough need to buy American technology to keep its trade

with America balanced and not lopsided like China. It may even be

able to allow America to cut its defense budget by taking over some

of its responsibilities in the Indian Ocean. It is a democracy and

has no territorial designs. Geographically and historically, from

its isolated birth by separation from Gondwanaland millions of years

ago, it has drifted north to strike the underbelly of Asia to create

the Himalayas, Hindu Kush and Pamir mountains to maintain its

geographical and historical isolation. It went beyond these barriers

only to spread Buddhism while outsiders have breached the barriers

for far from benign motives. Their motives were not noble or

strategic but pecuniary. Geographically, India has no direct

strategic value to any major power, but a strong potential to thwart

or facilitate the ambitions of other great powers at present.

 

(The author is a retired neurophysician and an occasional writer.

The views expressed are his own. Email- gpbhatt1 .)

 

South Asia Analysis Group