US Intel: India to be unrivalled power

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India to be unrivalled power in 15 yrs: US report

Press Trust Of IndiaPosted online: Thursday, February 24, 2005 at 1358 hours

ISTUpdated: Thursday, February 24, 2005 at 1405 hours ISTWashington, February

24: India will emerge as an “unrivalled” regional power with large military

capabilities in the next 15 years but its “rising ambition” would further

strain its relations with China besides complicating ties with Russia

and Japan, America’s National Intelligence Council has said in a report.

“India will be the unrivalled regional power with a large military — including

naval and nuclear capabilities — and a dynamic and growing economy,” the NIC,

which represents 15 spy agencies of the US including the CIA, has said in its

global trends forecast for 15 years. “The size of its population — 1.2 billion

by 2015 — and its technologically driven economic growth virtually dictate that

India will be a rising regional power,” it said. However, the report said that

the unevenness of its internal economic growth, with a growing gap between rich

and poor, and serious questions about the fractious nature of its politics, all

cast doubt on how powerful India will be by 2015.“Whatever its degree of power,

India’s rising ambition will further strain its relations with China, as well as

complicate its ties with Russia, Japan and the West — and continue its nuclear

standoff with Pakistan,” it said. Moreover, other South Asian states —

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal — will be drawn closer to and more dependent on

India and its economy. Afghanistan will likely remain a weak and destabilising

force in the region and the world. Wary of China, India will look increasingly

to the West, but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan

will lead to strengthened ties to persian Gulf states as well. The NIC also

forecast that India, China and Russia could form a de facto geo-strategic

alliance in an attempt to counter-balance US and western influence. Noting that

the interests of Russia, China and India, as well as Iran and Turkey will

intersect in central Asia, it said the states of that region will attempt to

balance those powers as well as keep the US and the West engaged to prevent

their domination by an outside power. On other fronts, it said Indian democracy

will remain strong, albeit more factionalised by the secular-Hindu nationalist

debate, growing differentials among regions and the increase in competitive

party politics. On the economic front, it said India’s economy, long repressed

by the heavy hand of regulation, is likely to achieve sustained growth to the

degree reforms are implemented. High-technology companies will be the most

dynamic agents and will lead the thriving service sector in four key urban

centres — Mumbai, New Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai. Computer software services

and customised applications will continue to expand as India strengthens

economic ties to key international markets. Industries such as pharmaceuticals

and agro-processing will also compete globally. It said numerous factors

provide India a competitive advantage in the global economy including the

largest English-speaking population in the developing world; its education

system which produces millions of scientific and technical personnel. It also

noted that India has a growing business-minded middle class eager to strengthen

ties to the outside world, and the large Indian expatriate population provides

strong links to key markets around the world. However, despite the rapid

growth, more than half a billion Indians will remain in dire poverty, the NIC

says. Harnessing technology to improve agriculture will be India’s main

challenge in alleviating poverty in 2015. The widening Gulf between “have” and

“have-not” regions and disagreements over the pace and nature of reforms will

be a source of domestic strife. Rapidly growing, poorer northern states will

continue to drain resources in subsidies and social welfare benefits. Failure

by India to implement its reforms would prevent it from achieving sustained

growth. AIDS will be a major problem not only in Africa but also in India,

southeast Asia, several countries formerly part of the Soviet Union, and

possibly China. Among developing countries, India will remain in the forefront

in developing information technology, led by the growing class of high-tech

workers and entrepreneurs. Emerging Asia will be the fastest growing region,

led by breakout candidates China and India, whose economies already comprise

roughly one-sixth of the global gross domestic product. The global community

will have to deal with the military, political and economic dimensions of the

rise of China and India and the continued decline of Russia.

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