Weather Weapon Report to Air Force

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Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025

A Research Paper Presented To Air Force 2025

August 1996

 

Below are highlights contained within the actual report. Please

remember that this research report was issued in 1996 - 8 years ago -

and that much of what was discussed as being in preliminary stages

back then is now a reality.

 

In the United States, weather-modification will likely become a part

of national security policy with both domestic and international

applications. Our government will pursue such a policy, depending on

its interests, at various levels.

 

In this paper we show that appropriate application of weather-

modification can provide battlespace dominance to a degree never

before imagined. In the future, such operations will enhance air and

space superiority and provide new options for battlespace shaping

and battlespace awareness. "The technology is there, waiting for us

to pull it all together" [General Gordon R. Sullivan, "Moving into

the 21st Century: America's Army and Modernization," Military Review

(July 1993) quoted in Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard

Szymber, "Weather a Force Multiplier," Military Review,

November/December 1995, 75].

 

A global, precise, real-time, robust, systematic weather-

modification capability would provide war-fighting CINCs [an acronym

meaning "Commander IN Chief" of a unified command] with a powerful

force multiplier to achieve military objectives. Since weather will

be common to all possible futures, a weather-modification capability

would be universally applicable and have utility across the entire

spectrum of conflict. The capability of influencing the weather even

on a small scale could change it from a force degrader to a force

multiplier.

 

In 1957, the president's advisory committee on weather control

explicitly recognized the military potential of weather-

modification, warning in their report that it could become a more

important weapon than the atom bomb [William B. Meyer, "The Life and

Times of US Weather: What Can We Do About It?" American Heritage 37,

no. 4 (June/July 1986), 48].

 

Today [since 1969], weather-modification is the alteration of

weather phenomena over a limited area for a limited period of time.

[Herbert S. Appleman, An Introduction to Weather-modification (Scott

AFB, Ill.: Air Weather Service/MAC, September 1969), 1].

 

In the broadest sense, weather-modification can be divided into two

major categories: suppression and intensification of weather

patterns. In extreme cases, it might involve the creation of

completely new weather patterns, attenuation or control of severe

storms, or even alteration of global climate on a far-reaching

and/or long-lasting scale.

 

Extreme and controversial examples of weather modification-creation

of made-to-order weather, large-scale climate modification, creation

and/or control (or "steering") of severe storms, etc.-were

researched as part of this study... the weather-modification

applications proposed in this report range from technically proven

to potentially feasible.

 

Applying Weather-modification to Military Operations

 

How will the military, in general, and the USAF, in particular,

manage and employ a weather-modification capability? We envision

this will be done by the weather force support element (WFSE), whose

primary mission would be to support the war-fighting CINCs with

weather-modification options, in addition to current forecasting

support. Although the WFSE could operate anywhere as long as it has

access to the GWN and the system components already discussed, it

will more than likely be a component within the AOC or its 2025-

equivalent. With the CINC's intent as guidance, the WFSE formulates

weather-modification options using information provided by the GWN,

local weather data network, and weather-modification forecast model.

The options include range of effect, probability of success,

resources to be expended, the enemy's vulnerability, and risks

involved. The CINC chooses an effect based on these inputs, and the

WFSE then implements the chosen course, selecting the right

modification tools and employing them to achieve the desired effect.

Sensors detect the change and feed data on the new weather pattern

to the modeling system which updates its forecast accordingly. The

WFSE checks the effectiveness of its efforts by pulling down the

updated current conditions and new forecast(s) from the GWN and

local weather data network, and plans follow-on missions as needed.

This concept is illustrated in figure 3-2.

 

 

 

Two key technologies are necessary to meld an integrated,

comprehensive, responsive, precise, and effective weather-

modification system. Advances in the science of chaos are critical

to this endeavor. Also key to the feasibility of such a system is

the ability to model the extremely complex nonlinear system of

global weather in ways that can accurately predict the outcome of

changes in the influencing variables. Researchers have already

successfully controlled single variable nonlinear systems in the lab

and hypothesize that current mathematical techniques and computer

capacity could handle systems with up to five variables. Advances in

these two areas would make it feasible to affect regional weather

patterns by making small, continuous nudges to one or more

influencing factors. Conceivably, with enough lead time and the

right conditions, you could get "made-to-order" weather [William

Brown, "Mathematicians Learn How to Tame Chaos," New Scientist (30

May 1992): 16].

 

The total weather-modification process would be a real-time loop of

continuous, appropriate, measured interventions, and feedback

capable of producing desired weather behavior.

 

The essential ingredient of the weather-modification system is the

set of intervention techniques used to modify the weather. The

number of specific intervention methodologies is limited only by the

imagination, but with few exceptions they involve infusing either

energy or chemicals into the meteorological process in the right

way, at the right place and time. The intervention could be designed

to modify the weather in a number of ways, such as influencing

clouds and precipitation, storm intensity, climate, space, or fog.

 

PRECIPITATION

 

"...significant beneficial influences can be derived through

judicious exploitation of the solar absorption potential of carbon

black dust" [William M. Gray et al., "Weather-modification by Carbon

Dust Absorption of Solar Energy," Journal of Applied Meteorology 15

(April 1976): 355]. The study ultimately found that this technology

could be used to enhance rainfall on the mesoscale, generate cirrus

clouds, and enhance cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds in otherwise

dry areas.

 

....if we are fortunate enough to have a fairly large body of water

available upwind from the targeted battlefield, carbon dust could be

placed in the atmosphere over that water. Assuming the dynamics are

supportive in the atmosphere, the rising saturated air will

eventually form clouds and rainshowers downwind over the land.

 

Numerous dispersal techniques [of carbon dust] have already been

studied, but the most convenient, safe, and cost-effective method

discussed is the use of afterburner-type jet engines to generate

carbon particles while flying through the targeted air. This method

is based on injection of liquid hydrocarbon fuel into the

afterburner's combustion gases [this explains why contrails have now

become chemtrails].

 

To date, much work has been done on UAVs [unmanned Aviation

Vehicles] which can closely (if not completely) match the

capabilities of piloted aircraft. If this UAV technology were

combined with stealth and carbon dust technologies, the result could

be a UAV aircraft invisible to radar while en route to the targeted

area, which could spontaneously create carbon dust in any location.

 

If clouds were seeded (using chemical nuclei similar to those used

today or perhaps a more effective agent discovered through continued

research) before their downwind arrival to a desired location, the

result could be a suppression of precipitation. In other words,

precipitation could be "forced" to fall before its arrival in the

desired territory, thereby making the desired territory "dry."

 

FOG

 

Field experiments with lasers have demonstrated the capability to

dissipate warm fog at an airfield with zero visibility. Smart

materials based on nanotechnology are currently being developed with

gigaops computer capability at their core. They could adjust their

size to optimal dimensions for a given fog seeding situation and

even make adjustments throughout the process. They might also

enhance their dispersal qualities by adjusting their buoyancy, by

communicating with each other, and by steering themselves within the

fog. They will be able to provide immediate and continuous

effectiveness feedback by integrating with a larger sensor network

and can also change their temperature and polarity to improve their

seeding effects [J. Storrs Hall, "Overview of Nanotechnology,"

adapted from papers by Ralph C. Merkle and K. Eric Drexler, Rutgers

University, November 1995]. As mentioned above, UAVs could be used

to deliver and distribute these smart materials.

 

Recent army research lab experiments have demonstrated the

feasibility of generating fog. They used commercial equipment to

generate thick fog in an area 100 meters long. Further study has

shown fogs to be effective at blocking much of the UV/IR/visible

spectrum, effectively masking emitters of such radiation from IR

weapons [Robert A. Sutherland, "Results of Man-Made Fog Experiment,"

Proceedings of the 1991 Battlefield Atmospherics Conference (Fort

Bliss, Tex.: Hinman Hall, 3-6 December 1991)].

 

STORMS

 

The damage caused by storms is indeed horrendous. For instance, a

tropical storm has an energy equal to 10,000 one-megaton hydrogen

bombs [Louis J. Battan, Harvesting the Clouds (Garden City, N.Y.:

Doubleday & Co., 1960), 120]. At any instant there are approximately

2,000 thunderstorms taking place. In fact 45,000 thunderstorms,

which contain heavy rain, hail, microbursts, wind shear, and

lightning form daily [Gene S. Stuart, "Whirlwinds and Thunderbolts,"

Nature on the Rampage (Washington, D.C.: National Geographic

Society, 1986), 130].

 

Weather-modification technologies might involve techniques that

would increase latent heat release in the atmosphere, provide

additional water vapor for cloud cell development, and provide

additional surface and lower atmospheric heating to increase

atmospheric instability. The focus of the weather-modification

effort would be to provide additional "conditions" that would make

the atmosphere unstable enough to generate cloud and eventually

storm cell development.

 

One area of storm research that would significantly benefit military

operations is lightning modification... but some offensive military

benefit could be obtained by doing research on increasing the

potential and intensity of lightning.

 

Possible mechanisms to investigate would be ways to modify the

electropotential characteristics over certain targets to induce

lightning strikes on the desired targets as the storm passes over

their location.

 

In summary, the ability to modify battlespace weather through storm

cell triggering or enhancement would allow us to exploit the

technological "weather" advances.

 

SPACE WEATHER-MODIFICATION

 

This section discusses opportunities for control and modification of

the ionosphere and near-space environment for force enhancement. A

number of methods have been explored or proposed to modify the

ionosphere, including injection of chemical vapors and heating or

charging via electromagnetic radiation or particle beams (such as

ions, neutral particles, x-rays, MeV particles, and energetic

electrons) - [Peter M. Banks, "Overview of Ionospheric Modification

from Space Platforms," in Ionospheric Modification and Its Potential

to Enhance or Degrade the Performance of Military Systems (AGARD

Conference Proceedings 485, October 1990) 19-1].

 

It is important to note that many techniques to modify the upper

atmosphere have been successfully demonstrated experimentally.

Ground-based modification techniques employed by the FSU include

vertical HF heating, oblique HF heating, microwave heating, and

magnetospheric modification [Capt Mike Johnson, Upper Atmospheric

Research and Modification-Former Soviet Union (U), DST-18205-475-92

(Foreign Aerospace Science and Technology Center, AF Intelligence

Command, 24 September 1992)].

 

Creation of an artificial uniform ionosphere was first proposed by

Soviet researcher A. V. Gurevich in the mid-1970s. An artificial

ionospheric mirror (AIM) would serve as a precise mirror for

electromagnetic [EM]radiation of a selected frequency or a range of

frequencies.

 

 

 

ARTIFICIAL WEATHER

 

While most weather-modification efforts rely on the existence of

certain preexisting conditions, it may be possible to produce some

weather effects artificially, regardless of preexisting conditions.

For instance, virtual weather could be created by influencing the

weather information received by an end user.

 

Nanotechnology also offers possibilities for creating simulated

weather. A cloud, or several clouds, of microscopic computer

particles, all communicating with each other and with a larger

control system could provide tremendous capability. Interconnected,

atmospherically buoyant, and having navigation capability in three

dimensions, such clouds could be designed to have a wide-range of

properties... Even if power levels achieved were insufficient to be

an effective strike weapon [if power levels WERE sufficient, they

would be an effective strike weapon], the potential for

psychological operations in many situations could be fantastic.

 

One major advantage of using simulated weather to achieve a desired

effect is that unlike other approaches, it makes what are otherwise

the results of deliberate actions appear to be the consequences of

natural weather phenomena. In addition, it is potentially relatively

inexpensive to do. According to J. Storrs Hall, a scientist at

Rutgers University conducting research on nanotechnology, production

costs of these nanoparticles could be about the same price per pound

as potatoes [ibid, Hall].

 

Weather affects everything we do, and weather-modification can

enhance our ability to dominate the aerospace environment.

 

The US Army has already alluded to this approach in their concept

of "owning the weather." Accordingly, storm modification will become

more valuable over time [Mary Ann Seagraves and Richard

Szymber, "Weather a Force Multiplier," Military Review,

November/December 1995, 69].

 

As depicted, the technologies and capabilities associated with such

a counter weather role will become increasingly important.

 

The importance of space weather-modification will grow with time.

Its rise will be more rapid at first as the technologies it can best

support or negate proliferate at their fastest rates.

 

CONCLUSIONS

 

The ability to modify the weather may be desirable both for economic

and defense reasons. The global weather system has been described as

a series of spheres or bubbles. Pushing down on one causes another

to pop up [Daniel S. Halacy, The Weather Changers (New York: Harper

& Row, 1968), 202].

 

The lessons of history indicate a real weather-modification

capability will eventually exist despite the risk. The drive exists.

People have always wanted to control the weather and their desire

will compel them to collectively and continuously pursue their goal.

The motivation exists. The potential benefits and power are

extremely lucrative and alluring for those who have the resources to

develop it. This combination of drive, motivation, and resources

will eventually produce the technology. History also teaches that we

cannot afford to be without a weather-modification capability once

the technology is developed and used by others. Even if we have no

intention of using it, others will. To call upon the atomic weapon

analogy again, we need to be able to deter or counter their

capability with our own.

 

As the preceding chapters have shown, weather-modification is a

force multiplier with tremendous power that could be exploited

across the full spectrum of war-fighting environments... But, while

offensive weather-modification efforts would certainly be undertaken

by US forces with great caution and trepidation, it is clear that we

cannot afford to allow an adversary to obtain an exclusive weather-

modification capability.

 

The complete original report can be found at

http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/volume3/chap15/v3c15-1.htm