Indo-Pak peace process in danger

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Sunday June 13, 8:45 PM

Indo-Pak peace process in danger of a slow death

By Simon Denyer

"You need very strong, confident, nationalist governments on both

sides for this process to work," said Pakistani newspaper editor

Najam Sethi.

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The peace process between nuclear-armed

neighbours India and Pakistan is in danger of dying a slow death,

analysts say, with the new Congress-led government in Delhi neither

inclined nor able to compromise over Kashmir.

 

Sonia Gandhi may have decided to renounce the prime minister's job

after her Congress party won a surprise election victory last month,

but her influence still looms large over India's new government.

 

And her Italian birth severely limits the coalition's room for

manoeuvre in talks over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, an

issue deeply sensitive to many Indians and one where the right-wing

is ready to exploit the faintest sign of weakness.

 

"You need very strong, confident, nationalist governments on both

sides for this process to work," said Pakistani newspaper editor

Najam Sethi.

 

"But that condition has been eroded by change of government in

India, not least because Sonia Gandhi is going to have to constantly

fend off accusations of not being nationalist enough."

 

Former Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee resuscitated the

peace process between the neighbours last year, and brought his

Hindu-nationalist government around to the idea of a fresh attempt

to make peace.

 

The 79-year-old poet developed an unlikely rapport with Pakistan's

General and President Pervez Musharraf, the two men united in their

determination to explore the possibilities of peace and compromise

over divided Kashmir.

 

In the end it is far from clear they could have found a solution to

a dispute that has defied solution for more than five decades and

almost brought the neighbours to a fourth war in 2002. But with

Vajpayee gone from government, and his star waning rapidly even

within the BJP, the world may never know.

 

PHONE CALL

 

In late May, Musharraf reached for the phone to call India,

apparently concerned that the peace process was going off the rails.

But it was not Sonia Gandhi, nor new Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

whose number he rang. Instead it was Vajpayee's.

 

It was a clear sign, analysts say, of the general's confidence in

his old interlocutor, and his misgivings about the new team. But

there was little Vajpayee could do to help.

 

His party may have started the peace process while in government,

but in opposition they are likely to return to their nationalist

roots, especially under the parliamentary leadership of the hawkish

Lal Krishna Advani.

 

"The whole question of give and take with Pakistan will have to be

thrown out of the window now," a senior BJP member told Reuters

shortly after their election defeat. "Sonia, a foreigner, can never

convince this country to give anything to Pakistan."

 

Perhaps conscious of its vulnerability, Congress has moved swiftly

to protect its right flank, appointing two of its most hawkish

foreign policy experts to lead it in talks with Pakistan.

 

Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and National Security Adviser J.N.

Dixit have both served in Islamabad and have learnt to be deeply

suspicious of Pakistan from decades spent in the foreign service.

The appointments were greeted with dismay in Islamabad.

 

"For Kashmir we need people with vision, a politician on the Indian

side," said Sethi. "We don't need bureaucrats from the foreign

office to talk to each other. All they have done all their lives is

to sustain the status quo."

 

Natwar Singh did not take long to ruffle feathers in Islamabad when

he declared -- just days after taking office -- that the 1972 Shimla

agreement should be the bedrock of talks.

 

Reference to that deal, which delineated the Line of Control between

the opposing armies in Kashmir, was seen as a coded message -- there

will be no territorial compromise from India and no choice but to

adopt the old ceasefire line as the international border.

 

It drew an angry response from his counterpart in Islamabad Mian

Mehmood Kasuri. "A solution based on the LoC is not acceptable. The

status quo is part of the problem, not part of the solution," he

said.

 

"WISHFUL THINKING"

 

There is little doubt that Congress will struggle to sell any

territorial concessions over Kashmir to the Indian people, says

retired Pakistani General Talat Masood.

 

"But having said that, when it came to the resolution of Kashmir,

the BJP would not have necessarily given any territorial

concessions," he said. "I think it's wishful thinking on the part of

Pakistan to expect they would have been given some ground."

 

Masood says Pakistan will not walk away from the negotiating table

even if there is no early solution to the Kashmir dispute --

provided the two sides are still talking about the issue and

provided there is progress in other areas.

 

For that reasons few commentators expect the peace process to go off

the rails this year. But many see dark clouds further off.

 

Musharraf warned last week progress on Kashmir would have to go side-

by-side with progress in other areas, and said the two sides should

resolve their disputes within a "reasonable" time.

 

The general seems to have reined in Pakistani support for militants

fighting Indian rule in Kashmir, and infiltration across the Line of

Control is sharply lower this year. But he may find it more

difficult to maintain that effort if there is no hope of an end to

the dispute.

 

"Congress does not want the situation to deteriorate, but on Kashmir

they will drag their feet," said Sethi. "And at some stage Musharraf

will get very impatient."

 

"If things do not get better next year, the likelihood is they will

get worse," he said. "Then demands on Musharraf grow to let loose

the jihadis (Muslim fighters) again, to see if pressure can force

India back to the negotiating table."