India's Fantastic Turnaround

[Guest guest]

Five years of Vajpayee rule

 

"...Finance Minister Jaswant Singh announced that India would not be

seeking Official Development Assistance (ODA) any longer; even more

importantly, India, in the first week of March pre-paid $ 3 billion

in external loans! Such an act had never been even dreamt of before!"

 

By M.V. Kamath

Vajpayee, who has become a father figure, respected by one and all

had dreamt dreams but in his case the dreams are becoming a reality.

In five years, Vajpayee has attained what the Congress could not

attain in fifty. Moral: The NDA Government is here to stay.

 

LET's face up to it. The BJP-led NDA Government of over twenty

coalition partners has done the unbelievable: it has survived full

five years and is well set to return to power for another five years

when the time comes. Never before has a non-Congress Government

consisting of diverse political elements survived so long—and so

well. There have been, of course, hiccups. Mamata Bannerjee turned

out to be a major headache. Tehelka gave a strong handle to the

Opposition to hit hard not just at George Fernandes but at the very

heart of the NDA Government. Pakistan's General Musharraf was seen to

take India for a ride. And then nature seemed to work against the

Delhi Administration. India had the worst drought in three decades; a

super-earthquake hit Gujarat hard; elsewhere the country had to face

a terrific cyclone. The war over Kargil starkly showed India's

unreadiness to face Pakistani perfidy. But surprise, surprise: Delhi

weathered them all. And Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee stands

unchallenged not only as BJP leader but head of a coalition that

knows its place. India has weathered crisis after crisis only to

emerge victorious. For years and years, indeed ever since 1956 India

had been in the thrall of a foreign exchange crisis. Delhi was almost

living on borrowed money and was at the mercy of the World Bank and

the International Monetary Fund. Conditions had become so terrible

that at one point India was forced even to pawn its gold. That was a

decade ago. But consider the situation today: With a foreign exchange

reserve of over $75 billion, continuing to grow by a billion dollars

every month, India can look any creditor in its face. Indeed, just

the other day, Finance Minister Jaswant Singh announced that India

would not be seeking Official Development Assistance (ODA) any

longer; even more importantly, India, in the first week of March pre-

paid $ 3 billion in external loans! Such an act had never been even

dreamt of before! In a recent address to a seminar held in Delhi,

Disinvestment Minister Arun Shourie was to point this and some other

equally potent facts to a wide-eyed audience. Among the points he

made are the following:

 

* In spite of recessionary conditions in the world, India's exports

have grown by about 15 per cent in 2002-2003.

* In spite of the worst drought experienced in three decades prices

hardly rose by more than four to five per cent. When the country

experienced a similar situation during a Congress regime, prices had

shot up by 17 per cent.

* Twenty years ago, agriculture in India accounted for nearly 40 per

cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Services for 35 per

cent. India was predominantly an agricultural country, at the mercy

of the monsoon. Presently agriculture accounts for a quarter and

services for nearly a half! Once agricultural commodities accounted

also for 40 per cent of our exports. Presently they account for 17

per cent. It is a fantastic turnaround.

* Foodgrain stocks have reached an unbelievable 60 million tons which

can take care of any major calamity. The proportion of people in dire

poverty have gone down from 36 per cent to 27 per cent. People have

more purchasing power, considering the number of cars that are being

manufactured every year—and sold!

Neither the Indira Gandhi Government, nor that of Rajiv Gandhi, nor,

for that matter any earlier non-Congress Government had dared to

order the testing of nuclear weaponry. Within weeks of coming to

power Vajpayee Government ordered just that; power after Western

power applied sanctions against India but nothing daunted India went

about as if it cared two hoots. Not long after, the sanctions were to

be lifted. Delhi had made its point that it was not a power to be

slighted. India's self-respect received a major boost. Whether the

major nuclear powers wished to admit India to their private club, or

not, Delhi's eligibility was no more in question.

 

On the Service front India hardly has any rivals. Arun Shourie has

quoted an expert as saying that for a range of products capital costs

in India are just 30 to 35 per cent of what they are in technically

advanced Europe. As for Information Technology, India has no peers.

Bangalore has become India's Silicon Valley and Hyderabad is fast

aspiring to become another. India's exports run into crores and

crores of rupees and there is no let up. India's software exports are

to the tune of $ 6.2 billion in comparison to China's 0.85 billion

and they keep growing.

 

Then there were many sceptics who said that no free and fair

elections can ever be held in Jammu and Kashmir; but under

international monitoring and sharp scrutiny, free and fair elections

were held to the acute discomfort of terrorists and Pakistan, raising

India's standing on this issue to a high level. India's credentials

on Jammu and Kashmir are now accepted without challenge. Peace has

been established in Mizoram and Delhi is continuing to hold peace

talks with Naga rebels who seem to have come to the conclusion that

fighting any longer is futile.

 

In international affairs India has maintained a wholesome balance in

its relationships with various power centres. When Musharraf went

calling on the Russian President, Putin was quick to phone Vajpayee

that the Pakistani leader's visit should not be misunderstood and

that nothing can disturb Moscow's old relationship with Delhi. In his

time US President Bill Clinton paid a three-day visit to Delhi and

restricted his call on Islamabad to that many hours. And though for

tactical reasons the current administration in Washington seems close

to Musharraf, India continues to be held in high regard. And there is

increasing talk of India being chosen as another Permanent Member of

the UN Security Council. In the midst of all these happenings Atal

Behari Vajpayee stands supreme, a figure unchallenged by anyone both

within his own party and without. He has become a father figure,

respected by one and all (including Jayalalitha) who, for all one

knows, will continue to be the Prime Minister for as long as he wants

to be. And should, perchance, the Supreme Court decides in favour of

the VHP on the Ayodhya issue, then no party in the country would

stand a chance to dislodge him. The NDA's achievements, especially in

building roads linking the four corners of the country will further

strengthen NDA's popularity. Never had such an effort even been

visualised since the time of Ashoka. Vajpayee had dreamt dreams but

in his case the dreams are becoming a reality. In five years Vajpayee

has attained what the Congress could not attain in fifty. Moral: The

NDA Government is here to stay. The India Today-Marg-Org poll taken

some weeks before merely reflected ground reality.

The organiser: April 13, 2003 Vol. LIV No. 39