India may gain from ‘war against terrorism’

09-18-2001, 12:49 PM

India may gain from `war against terrorism'

>From L K Sharma
DH News Service
Washington, Sept 18

The Indo-US relations may benefit from a dose of realism in the
coming days, with Pakistan once again becoming a centre-piece of the
US strategy. The US will, of course, say that its ties with India are
not dependent on its relations with a third country. But the focus of
the US in the region has just undergone a slight change and it will
have some impact on India's relations with the US.

India will have no reason to resent closer links between Islamabad
and Washington, provided the US does not distinguish between the
terrorists causing destruction in America and the terrorists striking
in Kashmir or other parts of India.
While New Delhi may expect the US administration to make a powerful
statement against terrorists in Kashmir, it should not be surprised
if that element is not touched in the continuing spate of statements
in Washington applauding Gen Pervez Musharraf continues. In the real
world, the US would do what it knows best: to punish the enemy and to
bribe the friends and overlook their lapses as long as these do not
affect America's national interests. Those running moral crusades in
the national interest do not run an ethical foreign policy based on
Gandhian values.

The US had initially asked Pakistan to crack down on
the `madarassas', the nurseries for terrorists in its view. This is
one step that may have had some beneficial impact on the Kashmir
situation in the coming years and also on the Indo-Pak relations as
generally the peoples of the two nations are in favour of friendly
relations. It is possible that the US may not insist on that demand
as Pakistan offers it other forms of cooperation in the drive against
Osama bin Laden. The US tilt, in the context of South Asia, is being
delicately readjusted. Analysts close to the establishment are back
in the game of highlighting the parity between India and Pakistan.
Thus many dangers of not respecting Pakistan's sensitivities will be
highlighted even as rich tributes are paid to the `Great Indian
Democracy'.

The US will fully back Gen Musharraf who has projected himself here
as a moderate Muslim. The American media had reported in the past
about a shadowy figure in the army, a fundamentalist, who was keeping
an eye on Gen Musharraf. The US is banking on Gen Musharraf to
prevent the falling of Pakistani nuclear weapons into the hands of
fundamentalists in the event of a major civil unrest.

The Pakistan government developed the nuclear bomb purely as a
response to India but the fact of Pakistan being a nuclear weapons
state has encouraged many other forces to think of it as "an Islamic
bomb" belonging to the holding company of Muslim worldwide. Pakistan,
according to reports here, has some 30 tactical nuclear weapons but
no safeguards which operate in the case of original nuclear weapons
states.

Washington hopes that Gen Musharraf's professional army would retain
complete control and that the army itself would not be split.
American analysts will argue that US engagement alone can help the
moderate leadership of Pakistan to rid the Pakistani army of the
influence of Islamic fundamentalism.

Earlier, they were concerned that even some of the Westernised
officers of the Pakistan army had started praying five times a day.
American analysts will also start re-examining the Kashmir dispute
and advising the Bush administration not to stay aloof from such
an "explosive problem".

In an ironic replay of history, Pakistan has again become important
to the US. During the occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet forces,
the US had wanted Pakistan's help to prop up Osama bin Laden. This
time, with its economy on the brink of a collapse, Pakistan had no
choice except to cooperate with the US. However, it has been able to
make a virtue of it. Once it has joined the bandwagon, the US does
not wish to be reminded of Pakistan's role in supporting terrorism.
It is as well that the US administration had refrained from declaring
Pakistan a terrorist state even though the State Department's report
on international terrorism had listed the groups operating in
Pakistan.

Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is unlikely to again
highlight the "false" note in the earlier warm relationship between
the two countries. He had done so earlier, provoking Pakistan. The
cavalcade of uniformed officers will resume their journeys from
Islamabad to Pentagon. The revived military cooperation would mean
that the equipment held up in America would start flowing to the
rightful recipient who had paid for it.

Pakistan's demands for economic aid, lifting of sanctions and
resumption of supply of weapons are being considered favourably and
if sanctions on India are lifted soon, a thank-you letter from the
Indian prime minister to Gen Musharraf will be in order.

A Pakistani political analyst, Husain Haqqani, sees a silver lining
in the context of the Indo-Pak relationship, with India and Pakistan
coming on the same side, against terrorism. He sees it as a historic
opportunity. However, he has warned US against propping up a dictator
in Pakistan as it had done earlier. The US must not give up on
Pakistani democracy, he says. It may be tempting to deal with an
individual such as Gen Musharraf for immediate gains but that
approach is fraught with danger as has been shown by the earlier
cooperation between the US and the Zia regime.

Writing in the New York Times, Husain Haqqani, who was an adviser
both to Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, also warns the US
against "creating a new monster while dealing with the existing one".
He recalled that Gen Zia-ul-Haq used Western support to deny
democracy to his own people until his death. The present Pakistan
government, he said, had ignored Islamic militants on grounds of
supporting their fight against Indian control of Kashmir. Pakistan
describes these militants as freedom-fighters.

Mr Haqqani fears that Gen Musharraf in his bargain with the US would
seek American indulgence of his deviation from democracy on grounds
that he plans to act against Islamic extremists.