India-Pakistan Exchange Would Kill Millions

[Gauracandra 1]

India-Pakistan Exchange Would Kill Millions

AP

Wednesday: Indian soldiers shout slogans at their base near the border with Pakistan.

Wednesday, May 29, 2002

 

WASHINGTON — A war between India and Pakistan could easily go nuclear.

 

If India, fed up with terror attacks, moved against its smaller and weaker neighbor, Pakistan might view a nuclear missile launch as its only option in response.

 

India might retaliate with nuclear weapons of its own in a scenario that could kill 8 million to 12 million people and bring radiation fallout to millions more, including thousands of U.S. soldiers in the region.

 

Even if the two nations' leaders do not want war, "There is a danger that as tensions escalate, the leaders could find themselves in a situation in which irresponsible elements can spark a conflict," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Wednesday.

 

Of course, a nuclear exchange, or even a conventional war, is not inevitable. The Bush administration and European officials are pressuring b both sides to back down from their standoff over Kashmir, the disputed province that has been the source of two of the three India-Pakistan wars since 1947.

 

But if India launched a military strike with conventional weapons, even against a small target such as a Kashmiri militant camp, Pakistan probably would feel compelled to strike back, said Teresita Schaffer, a South Asia expert in Washington.

 

Pakistan might use conventional weapons at first.

 

AP

A photo shows Hiroshima after it was destroyed by a nuclear bomb in 1945.

The risk is that fighting would escalate, with attacks back and forth, "until one side or another — probably Pakistan — says, 'This last attack has put our country in severe danger. We have no choice but to use nuclear weapons,"' Schaffer said.

 

Pakistan, knowing it would lose even a nuclear engagement, might then gamble on a "demonstration" nuclear strike, perhaps on an unpopulated area to try to warn India off, said Anthony Cordesman, a defense analyst in Washington.

 

Even that would create a "a huge risk of confusion and misunderstanding" and probably cause India to fire nuclear weapons, Cordesman said.

 

Both countries are thought to have nuclear weapons numbering in the low dozens, said a U.S. defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity, with each weapon roughly equivalent in destructive power to the bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945.

 

Both Pakistan and India can deliver nuclear weapons with either ballistic missiles or small fighter-bomber airplanes.

 

Eight million to 12 million people could die in the short term, if the two countries engaged in a full-scale exchange with both sides successfully using most of their weapons and aiming them at populated areas, according to an analysis by the Defense Intelligence Agency.

 

That estimate does not include long-term deaths caused by radiation fallout, said the U.S. official. Among those at risk: The 7,000 U.S. troops in nearby Afghanistan, plus U.S. troops in Pakistan and aboard ships in the northern Arabian Sea.

 

The two countries have had 1 million troops at full alert along their border in Kashmir since India blamed Pakistan for a militant attack on its Parliament in December. Pakistan denies arming or giving money to the militants.

 

India has said it would not use a nuclear weapon first.

 

Pakistan might consider using nuclear weapons if India seized a chunk of its land, attacked a major city, or tried to cut Pakistan in two by seizing rail lines and roads, Schaffer believes.

 

A pre-emptive Indian strike against Pakistan's military or nuclear sites also might prompt such retaliation.

 

One big risk is that India might believe — wrongly, most U.S. analysts feel — that it can attack Pakistan because the United States will prevent Pakistan from retaliating with nuclear weapons.

 

But Pakistan almost certainly is moving its missiles around the country in a "shell game" to prevent both the United States and India from knowing exactly what it has, and thus to stop any pre-emptive strikes, said Cordesman.

 

"Pakistan has every reason to make sure its capabilities are covert," Cordesman said. "We simply can't physically prevent it, if they go to war."

 

Because of its superior spy satellites, the United States would, however, probably spot any missile launch by either side, before the other side did.

 

"But what exactly would 17 minutes [of warning] mean, in terms of diplomatic intervention?" Cordesman asks. "Especially if that missile was armed with nukes?"

[Tarun 6]

"Not only millions, BILLIONS!!" - Carl Sagan

[xxvvii 0]

They talk about the nuclear war like a delicious meal.

 

[This message has been edited by xxvvii (edited 05-31-2002).]

[bhaktajoy 0]

http://www.near-death.com/experiences/storm5.html

 

The therapy was their love, because my life’s review kept tearing me down. It was pitiful to watch, just pitiful. I couldn’t believe it. And the thing is, it got worse as it went on. My stupidity and selfishness as a teenage only magnified as I became an adult – all under the veneer of being a good husband, a good father, and a good citizen. The hypocrisy of it all was nauseating. But through it all was their love.

 

When the review was finished they asked: "Do you want to ask any questions?" and I had a million questions. I asked, for example, "What about the Bible?" They responded: "What about it?" I asked if it was true, and they said it was. Asking them why it was that when I tried to read it, all I saw were contradictions, they took me back to my life’s review again – something that I had overlooked. They showed me, for the few times I had opened the Bible, that I had read it with the idea of finding contradictions and problems. I was trying to prove to myself that it wasn’t worth reading.

 

I observed to them that the Bible wasn’t clear to me. It didn’t make sense. They told me that it contained spiritual truth, and that I had to read it spiritually in order to understand it. It should be read prayerfully. My friends informed me that it was not like other books. They also told me, and I later found out this was true, that when you read it prayerfully, it talks to you. It reveals itself to you. And you don’t have to work at it anymore.

 

My friends answered lots of questions in funny ways. They really knew the whole tone of what I asked them, even before I got the questions out. When I thought of questions in my head, they really understood them.

 

I asked them, for example, which was the best religion. I was looking for an answer which was like: "Presbyterians." I figured these guys were all Christians. The answer I got was: "The best religion is the religion that brings you closest to God."

 

Asking them if there was life on other planets, their surprising answer was that the universe was full of life. Because of my fear of a nuclear holocaust I asked if there was going to be a nuclear war in the world, and they said no. That astonished me, and I gave them this extensive explanation of how I had lived under the threat of nuclear war. That was one of the reasons I was who I was. I figured, when I was in this life, that it was all sort of hopeless; the world was going to blow up anyway, and nothing made much sense. In that context I felt I could do what I wanted, since nothing mattered.

 

They said: "No, there isn’t going to be any nuclear war." I asked if they were absolutely sure there wasn’t going to be nuclear war. They reassured me again, and I asked them how they could be so sure. Their response was: "God loves the world."

 

They told me that at the most, one or two nuclear weapons might go off accidentally, if they weren’t destroyed, but there wouldn’t be a nuclear war. I then asked them how come there had been so many wars. They said that they allowed those few to happen, out of all the wars that humanity tried to start. Out of all the wars that humans tried to create, they allowed a few, to bring people to their senses and to stop them.

 

Science, technology, and other benefits, they told me, had been gifts bestowed on humanity by them – through inspiration. People had literally been led to those discoveries, many of which had later been perverted by humanity to use for its own destruction. These friends of my friend wanted war, because of the level of our technology, to be put aside. We could do too much damage to the planet. And by the planet, they meant all of God’s creation. Not just the people, but the animals, the trees, the birds, the insects, everything.

 

 

[Tarun 6]

May 31, 2002

STORY: WOULD ISLAM BECOME A DEAD RELIGION IF MUSLIM PAKISTAN NUKES HINDU

INDIA? G. KALKI, Editor Populist New Wire.

 

ABSTRACT: There is no fear of India Pakistan nuclear war, because Paksitan

realizes that attack on Hindu India would mean the end of Islam as religion.

On the contrary and Pakistan conspiring to take over Saudi Arabia, Kuwait

and United Arab Emirates in the pretense of leading Islamic Jehad, because

the main aim of Alqaeda is to hang 4000 princes of Saudi royal family.

It is

very likely that Musharraf Dynasty would replace Al Saud dynasty of

Saudi

Arabia and Al Sabah dynasty of Kuwait, and Wahhaby Sheikhdoms of UAE.

 

Sunni Arab Race and Sunni Islam Religion would cease to exist if Muslim

Sunni Pakistan undertakes preemptive nuclear strikes against Hindu

India.

Muslim nuclear attack on one billion Hindu India would result in the

destruction of Sunni Islam and Wahhabi Arab race. In retaliaiton of

preemptiive nuclear strike, Indian second strike nuclear, and

conventional

retaliation would nuke Mecca, Medina, Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, Kuwait,

Abu

Dhabi, Qatar, Bahrain, Rabat, Tunis, Islamabad, and Lahore. India would

not

nuke Karachi, land of Sindhis and Mohajirs.

 

Post nuclear attack India would be forced to resettle 400 million

Indians in

Arabian Peninsula and North Africa. Muslim nuclear attack on one

billion-strong Hindu India would result in annihilation of Islam in

North

Africa and Arabian Peninsula and eradication of Wahhabi Sunni Islam in

North

Africa and Arabian peninsula. India would partition Paksitan into

separate

sovereign states of Sindh, Baluchistan, and Pakhtoonistan.

 

India can easily absorb destruciton of 25 million Hindu lives by 25

Muslim

nukes, but in retaliation would be legally entitled to hang 250 million

Sunnis and Wahhabis and supporters of Al Qaeda and Taliban. Prophet

Mohammed

had forecast the End of Islam in 15th Century Hijra, the present

Islamic

century. The Source of evil is not in Paksitani race, who are of Aryan

descent, but Evil Wahhabi Sunni cult of Saudi Arabian origin, to which

terrorist Osama Bin Ladin belongs to. Perhaps Afghans, Pathans, Shiite

Iranians and Shiite Saudi Arabians would join forces with Hindu India

to

eradicate the evil Wahhabi Sunni cult from North Africa and Arabian

Peninsula.

 

Pakistan is a civilized nation, and brothers of Indians, so the

civilised

Paksitani leadership would overthrow Musharraf and reistall the

democratically elected governemnt of Prime Minister Nawaj Sharrif.

President

Pervez Musharraf would be executed by firing squad by patriotic

Sindhis,

Baluchis and Pathans.

 

There is no fear of India Paksitan nuclear war. Islamic nuclear weapons

would be used against Catholic Rome, as a prelued to recration of

Islamic

Ottoman Empire under the leadership of nuclear Pakistan. Pakistani

Ottoman

Empire would extend from Morrocco to Islamabad. Pakistan would control

the

Islamic Holy sites in Mecca and Medina. Pakistan has emerged as leader

of

Islamic world, and hence the Saudi provinces of Mecca and Medina should

be

handed over to Pakistan and half of oil incomes of OPEC nations reerved

for

Pakistan as tribute. Pakistan has inherited the Islamic Ottoman Empire,

and

all the oil wealth of OPEC nations, North Africa and Arabian Peninsula

belongs to Pakistan as a matter of right of the Caliph of Islam. India

would

support the Paksitani conquest of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, as a

bargaining

chip to avert nuclear holocast. India would support the Chinese

conquest of

Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia as a bargaining chip to gain Chinese

support in case of India-Pakistan War.

 

There is no fear of India Pakistan nculear exchange, even if India

attacks

Pakistan and conquers Pakistan and breaks up Pakistan into three

separate

states. After conquering Pakistan, India would make Pakistan the Caliph

of

Islam and help create Pakistani Ottoman Empire, extending from Morrocco

to

Islamabad. Every Punjabi dreams to have three Arab wives. Pakistani nuclear

rhetorics would result in Pakistani conquest of Arabian Peninsula and North

Africa, with India's tacit support .

End. G. Kalki. Editor, Populist News wire.

 

 

[sha 0]

India-Pakistan; Westerners Evacuate, Nuclear Threat Quite Real

 

http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/06.03B.ind.pak.nuk.htm

 

U.S. Advises Americans to Leave India

 

S. Asia: As fears grow about a war along the Pakistan border, Britain,

Canada and Australia also urge their citizens to evacuate voluntarily.

 

By Robin Wright

Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

 

June 1 2002

 

WASHINGTON -- In an ominous reflection of fears over war in South Asia, the United States on Friday urged more than 60,000 Americans to leave India immediately and authorized the departure of nonemergency U.S. personnel as soon as possible.

 

The voluntary evacuation came as a classified Pentagon report estimated that as many as 12 million people would die and an additional 6 million would be injured in the first weeks of a war involving nuclear weapons on the volatile subcontinent.

 

A war would be "somewhere between terrible and catastrophic," Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz predicted Friday at an Asian defense conference in Singapore.

 

The State Department warning also urged any Americans considering travel to India to defer their plans.

 

"Conditions along India's border with Pakistan and in the [indian] state of Jammu and Kashmir have deteriorated. Tensions have risen to serious levels and the risk of intensified military hostilities between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out," the warning said.

 

The warning called on Americans to avoid all border areas between India and Pakistan, including the Indian states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab and the disputed Kashmir region, because of military movements, heavy artillery fire and the presence of terrorists.

[xxvvii 0]

I have neither the interest in wwiii's fatasy nor the attempt to interfere your gov.'s decision-making. What I expect is that you could learn sth. from the Israel, American, & recent decades' experiences of yourself. It's easy to be a Winner whereas it's hard to reach the Goal in a short term. Change your mind.

 

[sha 0]

Arundhati Roy on Nuclear Danger

"When India and Pakistan conducted their nuclear tests in 1998, even those

of us who condemned them, balked at the hypocrisy of Western nuclear

powers. Implicit in their denunciation of the tests was the notion that

blacks cannot be trusted with the Bomb. Now we are presented with the

spectacle of our governments competing to confirm that belief.

 

As diplomats' families and tourists disappear from the subcontinent,

Western journalists arrive in Delhi in droves. Many call me. 'Why haven't

you left the city?' they ask. 'Isn't nuclear war a real possibility? Isn't

Delhi a prime target?' If nuclear weapons exist, then nuclear war is a

real possibility. And Delhi is a prime target. It is.

 

But where shall we go? Is it possible to go out and buy another life

because this one's not panning out?"

 

Read the rest of this powerful essay by the famed Indian author and

activist Arundhati Roy at The Nation's website currently:

 

ARUNDHATI ROY: War Talk: Summer Games with Nuclear Bombs

 

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=special&s=roy20020604

 

A rare statement of the most basic sanity and humanity in a world in which

mad has come to mean not individual anger or craziness but mutually

assured destruction, this essay underscores why Roy has become one of the

world's most powerful proponents of social equality, environmental sanity

and economic justice.

 

And if you're moved by Roy's words here, check out "Power Politics," her

latest collection of essays recently published by SouthEnd Press.

 

For information, including how to order copies online, go to:

http://www.southendpress.org/books/powerpolitics.shtml

 

You can also find much more info about Roy, her work and her activism at

the Arundhati Roy Website at:

http://website.lineone.net/~jon.simmons/roy/

[Jagat 1]

<h3>The great game gets serious</h3>

 

It's not a question of whether there will be a war soon in Kashmir, says security specialist EDWARD LUTTWAK, but of how bad the war will be

 

 

By EDWARD LUTTWAK

 

(Edward Luttwak is a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.)

 

Thursday, June 6, 2002 – Globe&Mail

 

Tension rises and falls day by day, but absent an improbable diplomatic breakthrough, India will go to war against Pakistan over the continuing infiltration of armed militants into India's part of Kashmir and into India itself. On average, three Indian citizens and two infiltrators are killed each day, in addition to the combat casualties of both armies along the Line of Control that divides Kashmir.

 

For months now, the Bush administration has been asking the Indian government to be patient with Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, noting that he has dismissed Islamic extremists within his own Intelligence Service, that a number of leading militants have been arrested, and that some organizations have been banned, including the Jaish-e-Mohammed, or Party of Mohammed.

 

The Indians were skeptical from the start, in part because of an intelligence assessment that General Musharraf himself is an Islamic extremist, despite his "very British" style, and mostly moderate language. Nevertheless, they decided to give American diplomacy a chance. Having seen it achieve a total reversal of Pakistani policy toward the Taliban in Afghanistan, Delhi hoped that Pakistan's Kashmir policy might also change.

 

In the meantime, however, the buildup of Indian air and ground forces facing Pakistan continued, both to put more pressure on Gen. Musharraf, and to prepare for action if diplomacy failed.

 

That point has almost been reached.

 

India's multiparty coalition government is, not surprisingly, divided: Some cabinet members argue that force should be used immediately, while others still believe that U.S. diplomacy should be given more time to achieve results. Recently, however, the advocates of immediate force have been gaining ground, both because Indian security forces continue to encounter armed militants newly arrived from Pakistani territory, and because of Gen. Musharraf's insistence in recent speeches that armed resistance within Kashmir is legitimate.

 

The Pakistani leader does not distinguish between local resisters and infiltrators from Pakistan. The difference, however, is important: While local Kashmiris mostly favour independence, the infiltrated Islamic militants are fighting to unify the territory with Pakistan.

 

Of course, it does not help that Mr. Musharraf continues to reject Indian demands for the extradition of several Muslim Indian citizens accused of major acts of terrorism within India. Add to that the fact that some of the militants arrested in past months have already been released, or been placed under very loose house arrest, while units of banned organizations continue to recruit, train and operate armed infiltrators, and Indian patience has worn thin.

 

India's multiparty coalition governs by reaching major decisions collectively, often after extensive discussions. But because so many people are involved, even secret decisions soon leak out. It is evidently on that basis that the U.S. government has now concluded that India is preparing to go to war.

 

That is why the Bush administration sent deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage to Delhi, and now is sending Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld.

 

Because India and Pakistan have been fighting a low-level war for many years along the Line of Control, with almost daily exchanges of rifle, machine-gun and mortar fire, what is now at issue is not war or peace but rather the scope and purpose of the larger military operation that India has planned.

 

Rather like the recent Israeli operation in the Palestinian West Bank, India's aim is to destroy "terrorist infrastructures" by raiding the Muzaffarabad district in Azad (or "free") Kashmir -- the Pakistani sponsored mini-state in northwest Kashmir -- to find weapon stores, training facilities, leaders, trainers and militants. To capture as many of their enemies as possible, the Indians would bomb the bridge over the Jehlum River and send commandos into action behind the Pakistani lines.

 

Equally as important, is what the Indians will not do, so as to try to keep the fighting well below the "nuclear threshold." They will not attack the Mirpur district of Azad Kashmir even though it contains terrorist infrastructure because it is on the road to Islamabad and Rawalpindi. They also will not advance toward the major city of Lahore, which is within easy reach of Indian armoured forces in the Punjab. They will not attempt deep encirclement operations on any sector of the front and they will not bomb Pakistani cities behind the lines. It is also unlikely that India would immediately use its superior naval power to impose a maritime embargo on Pakistan.

 

To dissuade attack, Mr. Musharraf and his spokesmen have stated that Pakistani forces would not limit themselves to defensive actions or local counterattacks in the sectors India chooses to invade, but would, instead, launch their own offensive operations in sectors of their choosing.

 

That of course opens a dangerous path to escalation: If the Pakistani army launches major attacks against Indian troop concentrations, and if battles do develop among the roughly one million troops deployed by both sides, there is the possibility that one side or the other may suffer a major defeat. At that point, the use of one or two nuclear explosions to avoid defeat could be possible.

 

[gHari 0]

June 15th may be targeted for India assault into Pakistan occupied Kashmir:

 

http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/070602/detfro02.asp

[sha 0]

PRAY FOR PEACE BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN

 

Prayer of Compassion

 

Grant me, 0 God,

the heart of a child,

pure and transparent as a spring;

a simple heart,

which never harbours sorrows;

a heart glorious in self-giving,

tender in compassion;

a heart faithful and generous,

which will never forget any good

or bear a grudge for any evil.

 

Make me a heart gentle and humble,

loving without asking any return,

large-hearted and undauntable,

which no ingratitude can sour

and no indifference can weary;

a heart penetrated by the love of Jesus

whose desire will only be satisfied in heaven.

 

Grant me, 0 Lord,

the mind and heart

of thy dear Son.

 

-- Prayer found in, "The Oxford Book of Prayer," Oxford University

Press