India and Russia-V

12-29-2000, 09:20 PM

India and Russia-V
December 26, 2000
Original Article at link below
http://www.indiavotes.com/columns1/y...-tksludra.html
By Lieutenant Colonel Thakur Kuldip S Ludra (Retd.)

That Putin's visit had positive economic and commercial overtones had
been obvious. However, what was exactly his Grand design needs to be
understood and analysed. It must be realised that the collapse of
the
Soviet
Union had been a traumatic experience for the Russian leadership.
Not
only
had she collapsed economically but its empire, built so
painstakingly
by the
czars, had been frittered away by the communist leadership. Russia
has lost
most of her peripheral regions which had given her strategic depth
and
which had become the cornerstone of her Grand Strategy and which
enabled her to use her strategic depth whereby she had traded space
for
time and lured the enemy deep into her country, forcing the enemy to
extend
his lines of communications, even as she shortened hers and
thereafter
targeting the enemy's communications. She would invariably use the
vagaries of the weather to further target the enemy's logistics. She
did so
against Napoleon and she did it again against Hitler. The end result
was
that even as the enemy won tactical victories, she lost
strategically
as she
was forced to withdraw under most adverse conditions.

Russia had also lost her aura of a super power and she had the
ignominy of
seeing her own prot=E9g=E9 usurping her position as a super power.
Her
sole claim to that status was and is the immense nuclear arsenal
that
she
had piled up in her heyday. Her position in the world community was
now
dependent on the nuisance value of her veto power. It must have been
galling for her to have her leadership heading towards Beijing and
make
offers which were handled so condescendingly by the Chinese
leadership.
Even her offers of supplying weapons systems were more as if China
was
operating in a buyers' market. Her suggestion for a Strategic
Triangle
comprising of China India and Russia with joint geo-political as well
geo-economic policies, obviously under her leadership had been
rejected
both by China and India. She was also facing the Islamic
Fundamentalist
onslaught, headed by Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence, where
the
Fundamentalists were targeting the Central Asian States which had
been
considered as Russian backyard. Under the circumstances Putin had to
sell
Russia to India. It was vital for her not only in economic terms but
also in
terms of her geo-political constraints.

That he was, to a very large degree successful is obvious. The arms
deals
alone have netted her at least $ 3 Billion. Some say that the value
could
well go upto $ 6 Billion or even more. However, even more important
was
the signing of the Declaration of Strategic Partnership. These
included
seventeen bilateral agreements which would underscore the commonality
of national and geo-political interests. This would also lead to the
enhancement of close economic co-operation as well as political
interaction, particularly against Pakistan's Inter Services
Intelligence
onslaught targeting, particularly the Taliban controlled Afghanistan.
However the Russians have been playing their cards rather close to
their
chest. While trying to retain the cordiality of the Indo-Russian
relationship
they have also indirectly, by sending a delegation to Pakistan and
accepting
an invitation from Pakistan for Putin's visit to that country sent a
message
that India should not forget the importance of Russia to its
security. Taken
to its logical conclusion there could well be a
Moscow-Beijing-Islamabad
Strategic Triangle if India ignores Russian overtures.

For India it must also be borne that Russia as just as strongly
interested in
India remaining within the existing Nuclear bounds. She is not
prepared to
give India a de jure Nuclear status much as India desires it. Russia
is also
keen that India signs the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty for that will
ensure that India remains dependent on her for a nuclear support
assistance
as well as sell her technology to India. Towards that end a
Memorandum of
Understanding has been signed on intensifying bilateral co-operation
in the
peaceful use of nuclear energy. The Russians have also indicated
that
the
international restrictions of sale of nuclear know how or material
need not
come in the way of Indo-Russian transactions.

Of course, for India any yardstick of the success of any
international
dealings is the stand taken by the other party on Kashmir and on
this
score
India has reasons to be particularly satisfied. The Russians having
reaffirmed their support to India's efforts to normalise her
relations with
Pakistan on the basis of Shimla Agreement of 1972.

The other side of the coin is however not so pleasant. While the
threat of
the Islamabad-Beijing-Moscow Triangle is there and so is the
non-support
of India's Nuclear ambitions, what is important is that India has
once again
failed to capitalise on her economic strength vis-=E0-vis Russia. If
one
study's the table below it will be seen that vis-=E0-vis Russia,
India has
always been on a stronger wicket yet she had been tied down by the
Rupee
agreement which ensured that India remained tied to Russia as the
Rupees
earned by India were worthless in the international market.

INDO-RUSSIAN TRADE (1993-2000) (in Million Dollars)
CHART AT LINK BELOW:

http://www.indiavotes.com/columns1/y...-tksludra.html

(The source of the above information is CMIE as quoted by
the Frontline of 27 October 2000, page 18)

While earlier the trade, as mentioned earlier was in Rupees it is
now
in the
freely convertible currencies, in that the Russian imports are to be
paid in
international hard currencies, the Indian exports are to be paid in
rupees. In
other words India is bound down to Russia for the requisite supply of
goods to compensate for the payment made to India in Rupees which is
still
a very week currency. In other words Russia has managed to tie India
to
her for commercial purposes once again to the detriment of Indian
commercial interests.

An agreement regarding the transportation of goods has also been
signed.
The new route from Mumabi to Bandar Abbas in Iran to Astarkhan in
Russia shortens the route to Russia which earlier went through Suez
to
eventually land at Saint Petersburg (earlier Leningrad).

That India has not made a very profitable bargain is obvious.
However
the
future to a very large degree rests on the success that Russia makes
of her
economy as well as her status in the world pecking order.